Ukrainian military forces have successfully established positions on the eastern side of the Dnieper River, according to a new analysis, giving rise to speculation that the advances could be an early sign of Kyiv's long-awaited spring counteroffensive.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported late Saturday that geolocated footage from pro-Kremlin military bloggers indicated that Ukrainian troops had established a foothold near the town of Oleshky, along with "stable supply lines" to their positions.
Experts believe that if Ukraine launches a spring counteroffensive, a key objective would be to break through the land corridor between Russia and Crimea, which would require crossing the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.
Some Ukrainian media outlets have suggested the analysis is evidence of the counteroffensive beginning, but the spokesperson for Ukraine's Operational Command South, Natalia Humeniuk, urged everyone to be patient.
She neither confirmed nor denied the ISW report, saying she could not disclose details of military operations in the Dnieper delta for operational and security reasons.
The Kremlin-installed head of the Kherson region, one of four parts of Ukraine that Russia said it was illegally annexing in September, denied on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnieper.
In a Telegram update, Vladimir Saldo said that Russian forces were "in full control" of the area, and speculated that the images referenced by the ISW may have depicted Ukrainian sabotage units that "managed to take a selfie" across the Dnieper before being forced back.
More than a year since the Russian invasion, recent fighting has become a war of attrition, with neither side able to gain momentum.
But Ukraine has recently received sophisticated weapons from its Western allies, and new troops freshly trained in the West, giving rise to growing anticipation of a counteroffensive.
American-made Patriot missiles arrived in Ukraine last week and military spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said on Ukrainian television that some had already gone into battlefield service.
The US agreed in October to send the surface-to-air systems, which can target aircraft, cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles such as those that Russia has used to bombard residential areas and the Ukrainian power grid.
The fiercest battles have been in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russia is struggling to encircle the city of Bakhmut in the face of dogged Ukrainian defence.
Baltics condemn China envoy's stance on ex-Soviet nations
France, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania strongly condemned comments by China's envoy to France, who questioned the sovereignty not only of Ukraine, but all the former Soviet republics including the Baltic states.
The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in separate announcements late Saturday deemed statements by Lu Shaye, China's ambassador to France, as unacceptable.
In a recent interview with the French news channel LCI, he was asked if he thought that the Crimean Peninsula belonged to Ukraine. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, a move that most of the world denounced as illegal.
"That depends … on how one perceives this problem," the envoy told the broadcaster.
"There's the history. Crimea was at the beginning Russian, no? It was (Soviet leader Nikita) Khrushchev who gave Crimea to Ukraine in the era of the Soviet Union."
When the channel's presenter noted that, according to international law, Crimea is part of Ukraine, the Chinese ambassador drew a parallel to the former Soviet republics — including the three Baltic nations — that broke free after the USSR collapsed in 1991.
"With regards to international law, even these ex-Soviet Union countries, they do not, they do not have the status — how to say it? — that's effective in international law, because there is no international agreement to solidify their status as a sovereign country," he said.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis tweeted: "If anyone is still wondering why the Baltic states don't trust China to 'broker peace in Ukraine,' here's a Chinese ambassador arguing that Crimea is Russian and our countries' borders have no legal basis."
Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius would each summon China's ambassador or representative for an explanation of the envoy's comments, the three Baltic countries said.
European Union and NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania regained their independence in 1991 amid the fall of the Soviet Union after nearly five decades of Moscow's rule.
In a separate statement, France's Foreign Ministry expressed concern about the ambassador's comments about ex-Soviet states and said: "It's for China to say whether these comments reflect its position, which we hope is not the case."
President Vladimir Putin of Russia, which is China's ally, has said several times that he doesn't recognise the sovereignty of Ukraine.
The Kremlin has also made clear that it perceives the independence of the Baltic states and their active role in NATO and the EU as threats to Russia's security.
Ukraine war spurs record global spending on military
Global military spending rose to a record last year as Russia's war in Ukraine drove the biggest annual increase in expenditure in Europe since the end of the Cold War three decades ago, a leading conflict and armaments think tank said on Monday.
World military expenditure rose by 3.7 per cent in real terms in 2022 to $US2.24 trillion ($3.35 trillion), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in a statement.
European military spending shot up 13 per cent last year, primarily due to increases by Russia and Ukraine, but with many countries across the continent also ramping up military budgets and planning for more amid the surging tensions.
"This included multi-year plans to boost spending from several governments," SIPRI Senior Researcher Diego Lopes da Silva said.
"As a result, we can reasonably expect military expenditure in Central and Western Europe to keep rising in the years ahead."
Ukraine's military spending rose 640 per cent in 2022, the largest annual increase recorded in SIPRI data going back to 1949, with that total not including the vast amounts of financial military aid provided by the West.
SIPRI estimated that military aid to Ukraine from the United States accounted for 2.3 per cent of total US military spending in 2022. Though the United States was the world's top spender by far its overall expenditure rose only marginally in real terms.
Meanwhile, Russia's military spending grew by an estimated 9.2 per cent, though SIPRI acknowledged figures were "highly uncertain given the increasing opaqueness of financial authorities" since its war in Ukraine began.
"The difference between Russia's budgetary plans and its actual military spending in 2022 suggests the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia far more than it anticipated," said Lucie Beraud-Sudreau, the director of SIPRI's military expenditure and arms production programme.
ABC/wires
