In an age of rising tariffs, earnings growth is one thing S&P 500 investors can lean on. But for some companies, you don't even have that to count on.
Analysts think first-quarter adjusted profit per share will plunge 90% or more at nine S&P 500 companies in the first quarter, including Albemarle, Cincinnati Financial and Crown Castle, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSurge.
Such major drops in profit underscore the fragility of the upcoming first-quarter earnings season. Analysts are looking for 7% earnings growth from the S&P 500 in the quarter, says John Butters of FactSet. But the estimates are falling fast.
"Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs, did analysts lower EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter?" Butters said. "The answer is yes." So far, from December through March, analysts cut estimates by 4.2%.
Where Earnings Will Plummet In The S&P 500
Analysts are most bearish on chemical firm Albemarle. The company is expected to lose nearly 60 cents a share in the first-quarter of this year. That's a giant reversal from its profit of 26 cents a share in the same year-ago period.
The company's chart isn't pretty either. Thanks to a 33% drop this year, its RS Rating is just 12. And facing more losses this year, the EPS Rating is just 26.
Analysts are expecting ugliness from Cincinnati Financial, too. The financial firm is seen losing 52 cents a share this first quarter, down from a profit of $1.72 a share a year ago. Analysts also think the Ohio-based insurer's profit will drop 32% in all of 2025. Shares are down 12% this year, giving the stock an RS Rating of just 73.
Estimates are just that — estimates. But in a time of so much uncertainty, it pays to be at least confident the profit of companies you're investing in can hold up.
Biggest Earnings Drops Expected
For S&P 500 companies in the first quarter
| Company | Ticker | EPS Q1 ch. | YTD stock % ch. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albemarle | ALB | -329.0% | -32.5% |
| Cincinnati Financial | CINF | -130.2% | -11.9% |
| Crown Castle | CCI | -125.1% | 8.2% |
| Live Nation Entertainment | LYV | -101.1% | -7.9% |
| Intel | INTC | -99.0% | -2.4% |
| Ford Motor | F | -99.9% | -6.7% |
| Marathon Petroleum | MPC | -97.0% | -12.8% |
| Dow | DOW | -96.2% | -31.4% |
| Pinnacle West Capital | PNW | -83.7% | 5.7% |
