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The Street
The Street
Business
Silin Chen

Analyst who forecast Palantir's rally makes another bold call

Imagine a tech CEO who lives far from Silicon Valley, meditates often and holds a Ph.D. in social theory.

Instead of obsessing over the latest VC trends, Alex Karp is pondering ethical dilemmas and wrestling with the tension between privacy and security.

As the CEO of Palantir Technologies  (PLTR) , Karp is responsible for leading one of the most secretive but influential companies in the world. The firm specializes in big data analytics and works closely with government agencies on some of their most sensitive projects.

Karp's leadership style is as unconventional as his company’s mission. He doesn’t fit the stereotype of a charismatic tech mogul with a meticulously crafted public persona. Instead, he’s known for his candidness and sharp statements.

Related: Analyst adjusts AMD stock price target after AI event

He has openly criticized the tech industry for its reluctance to work with the government, arguing that companies should have a responsibility to support their countries rather than merely chase profits.

“Now Silicon Valley is creating micro-communities that break the consensus of larger society while simultaneously telling the average American, ‘I will not support your defense needs,’ and then selling their products that are adversarial to America,” Karp said in an interview with CNBC back in 2019.

Palantir's Q2 net income hit $134 million, the largest quarterly profit in the company’s twenty-year history, Karp said.

Bloomberg/Getty Images

Analyst said Palantir stock price could edge higher

TheStreet Pro analyst Ed Ponsi portrays Karp as potentially the next "rock star" CEO, likening him to figures like Steve Jobs and Elon Musk.

“This was Karp’s moment on the big stage. Like Jimi Hendrix at Monterey, or Bob Dylan at Newport, Karp has just entered the general public’s consciousness,” Ponsi wrote last month, just before Palantir joined the S&P 500 index.

Ponsi correctly anticipated an increase in Palantir's stock price. On Sept. 23, Palantir replaced American Airlines  (AAL)  in the S&P 500 index, and since then, its stock price has increased by more than 16%.

Now, Ponsi has an even higher goal.

“I’ve decided to lean into the frenzy and add to my Palantir position, despite the fact that the stock is trading at an all-time high,” he wrote on Oct. 10. “It's a strong stock in a strong market.”

Related: Analysts respond to Palantir's entry into the S&P 500

The S&P 500 and the Dow closed at all-time highs on Oct 11, boosted by strong bank earnings and inflation data that raised hopes for a Fed rate cut in November.

“At the bottom of this chart, Palantir’s RSI (relative strength index) of 77 reveals a stock that is overbought,” Ponsi wrote. RSI reading above 70 places a stock firmly into the overbought camp.

“This fact doesn’t discourage me at all. Upon closer inspection, Palantir was overbought for most of September, and this did nothing to slow the stock’s ascent,” he added.

What drives Palantir’s growth

Palantir stock is up 162% year-to-date. The growth is driven not only by the CEO’s unique style and personality but also by the company’s expanding role in AI and increased demands.

Related: Veteran trader who correctly predicted Palantir's rally unveils new price target

Palantir develops data analytics software that enhances operational efficiency and boosts companies' productivity.

Palantir’s software is widely adopted by companies from various sectors, including Morgan Stanley, Airbus, and Merck.

However, the company’s biggest client is the U.S. government, which made up about 41% of its second-quarter revenue. The FBI, CIA, and other U.S. agencies use Palantir to collaborate and streamline their operations.

Palantir reported strong Q2 earnings and raised its full-year forecast in August, driven by high demand for its AI platform.

The company earned 9 cents per share adjusted in the second quarter, up 80% year-over-year and topping analysts’ estimate of 8 cents. Revenue rose 27% to $678 million, also exceeding analysts' forecast.

Meanwhile, the net income hit $134 million, the largest quarterly profit in the company’s twenty-year history, Karp said.

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“The steady ascent of our profit reflects the unbridled demand for and understanding of the capabilities of our software,” Karp said in a letter in August.

“Our growth across the commercial and government markets has been driven by an unrelenting wave of demand from customers for artificial intelligence systems that go beyond the merely performative and academic.”

The company now projects third-quarter revenue between $697 million and $701 million, while analysts estimated $679.1 million. Palantir also lifted full-year guidance to between $2.742 to $2.75 billion, up from $2.677 to $2.689 billion.

Palantir is set to report Q3 earnings after the close on Nov. 4.

Related: Veteran fund manager sees world of pain coming for stocks

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