Tesla shares edged lower Thursday, and have shed more than $230 billion in value this year, but one Wall Street analyst sees a stronger second half for the electric-vehicle group as it ramps production of the Cybertruck and prepares to launch its long-delayed robotaxi later this summer.
Tesla (TSLA) , which will post second-quarter delivery figures in a few weeks' time, last month dropped its reference to a goal of handing over 20 million vehicles a year to new customers by the end of the decade as it slowly shifts focus to autonomous driving over traditional auto production.
A global slump in EV demand, intensifying competition in China, and supply-chain snarls have combined to hit overall deliveries this year, with the first-quarter tally showing the biggest non-pandemic decline in more than 10 years.
In China, Tesla's EV sales fell another 6.6% in May, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association published earlier this week, following an 18% slump in April.
Europe isn't faring much better, with data from the region's Automobile Manufacturers’ Association recently showing that in April Tesla's Europe-based car registrations fell to the lowest in 15 months.
New EV lineup in focus
CEO Elon Musk has said the group could launch a new vehicle lineup later this year or in early 2025, although he noted that Tesla will likely use current production facilities "as well as aspects of the next-generation platform."
That likely means Tesla won't be able to launch the lower-priced EV that investors have been hoping for, adding to the pressure on the group's profit margins.
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However, Musk also told investors in April that "I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year."
Full year delivery growth forecasts
Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas, who lifted his Tesla price target by $45 to $267 a share in a note published Thursday, is also looking for year-on-year growth.
"Over the last several weeks, we have dramatically improved our global Tesla delivery tracking." Gianarikas and his team wrote. "After tirelessly scouring the web for country-level delivery data, we have gleaned some meaningful insights."
Canaccord sees Tesla's second-quarter deliveries coming in at 429,000 units, a 7% reduction from its prior forecast and well shy of the current Wall Street consensus of 445,000 units.
"It's important to note we estimate June month trends by country," Gianarikas said. "June is typically the highest sales month in the quarter; we do consider that seasonality in our estimates."
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Gianarikas also trimmed his full-year forecast to 1.86 million units from an earlier estimate of 1.93 million. He sees 3% growth compared with year-earlier levels.
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"We maintain [year-over-year] growth based on Mr. Musk's (first quarter) earnings call commentary and the potential for new models to be introduced late in 2024," he said.
Tesla shares were marked 0.36% lower in premarket trading to change hands at $174.43, a move would extend the stock's 2024 decline to around 30%.
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