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Rob Lenihan

Analyst reboots Rocket Lab stock price target after earnings

Peter Beck has always had a thing for rockets.

While an apprentice tool-and-die maker at Fisher & Paykel, the New Zealand native used the company workshop to make a rocket bike, rocket-attached scooter, and a jet pack.

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Beck went on to found in 2006 the launch and space systems company Rocket Lab  (RKLB) , which is now based in Long Beach, Calif.

The rocket business really took off in 2023, according to Quartz, reaching an all-time high of 207 successful orbital launches.

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck

Elon Musk’s SpaceX sent 1 million kg (2.2 million pounds) of cargo into orbit and was responsible for nearly half of all the orbital rockets launched this year.

With 108 launches, the U.S. broke the record for most launches by a nation, which the Soviet Union had held since 1982.

Rocket Lab recently reported first-quarter results, and during the company's earnings call, Beck, who is also the CEO, told analysts that the company had “a great series of launches” in the quarter with four successful missions.

CEO cites Space Force contract

Three of the missions were for commercial customers from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand and a national security mission for the National Reconnaissance Office out of Rocket Lab’s second site in Virginia.

Beck said that Rocket Lab moved quickly this quarter to execute against “our debut as a prime spacecraft contractor to the industry with a $515 million constellation of 18 spacecraft we’re developing for the Space Development Agency.”

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Rocket Lab recorded a first-quarter loss of 9 cents a share, beating Wall Street’s call for a loss of 11 cents a share. Revenue totaled $92.8 million, up 69% year-over-year but missing the consensus analyst estimate of $94.99 million.

"So, coming up in Q2, we have two back-to-back missions scheduled for NASA to deliver their prefire mission to space or missions to space," Beck said. 

"The mission is focused on understanding how much of Earth’s heat loss is lost into space from the Antarctic, which will help improve climate-change models and provide better predictions on sea-level rise and weather changes in the future," he said.

Beck said Rocket Lab will set up two satellites for NASA, one on each launch, that will crisscross the poles to gather accurate readings across the two orbits from one mission.

"We actually demonstrated a similar capability with the two tropics missions launched last year, so it’s great to see NASA take up this capability once again," he said.

After that, Beck said, Rocket Lab is set to launch the first of five missions for a new customer, Kineis, a French company backed by private and public investors, including the French government space agency.

Beck told analysts that "2025 is shaping up to be another record year also."

In April, Rocket Lab said that it had been selected for a $32 million U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command contract to deliver the Victus Haze Tactically Responsive Space, or TacRS, mission. 

"This one is really a full end-to-end mission solution that will really show off the success of a vertical integration strategy," he said.

Analyst: 'get fired up about Rocket Lab'

Rocket Lab, Beck said, will design, build, launch and operate the spacecrafts to demonstrate technically responsive space for the Department of Defense.

"It’s a super-exciting mission that showcases our ability to meet the DoD’s growing need for rapid and responsive orbital capability," Beck said. "It will also be a fantastic demonstration of what we can do as a full end-to-end mission services provider."

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He added that the company's task is to launch the spacecraft within 24 hours’ notice from the Space Force. 

"It’s the first time we’ve sold a complete end-to-end mission solution and to a prestigious customer as well," he said.

Beck told analysts that the launch of the company’s Neutron rocket, originally scheduled for year-end, will now happen no earlier than mid-2025.

"Getting Neutron to the pad this year was an ambitious green light schedule that we had a path to closing if every single aspect went exactly according to plan," he said. "But as we’ve always said, this is a rocket-development program and this is always filled with gremlins, some in [our] control and some not."

TheStreet Pro's Stephen Guilfoyle says it's time get fired up about Rocket Lab.

Related: SpaceX investor explains how to invest in space

"This is another one of my lower-priced, long-term investment ideas where I am putting my money where my mouth (keyboard) is," Guilfoyle told readers on May 9. "I have been buying RKLB on dips, which worked out very well for us for most of the first three and a half months of the year."

"The business is growing," he added. "The more the U.S. Space Force relies upon Rocket Lab the better."

Meanwhile, Citi analysts lowered the firm's price target on Rocket Lab to $5.45 from $6 and affirmed a buy rating on the shares. 

The analysts say the long-term thesis on the revenue, earnings and cash flow ramp remains intact after the company's first-quarter earnings report, which slightly missed guidance levels, "but disclosures were a reminder that space is hard." 

In the near term, several of the 22 planned Electron  launches appear likely to slip out of 2024, the firm told investors in a research note.

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