For almost four months, the Mexican state of Sinaloa has been the scenario of a turf war between "Los Chapitos" and "La Mayiza," the two most prominent factions of the Sinaloa Cartel. The violent conflict that started on September 9 has continued to escalate ever since, causing the death of more than 600 people.
Despite constant clashes between the two cliques, it remains unclear which side has the upper hand. But according to a spiritual advisor and analyst, that is set to change in 2025 as Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's incoming hearing before American authorities could generate yet another twist in the ongoing conflict.
Grace Valenzzo suggested that Zambada's next court appearance could intensify the conflict in Sinaloa in a similar fashion to when he and Joaquín Guzmán Lopez, son of "El Chapo" were arrested by U.S. authorities in New Mexico back in July 2024.
According to Infobae Mexico, Valenzzo projects that "La Mayiza" will gain ground on "Los Chapitos" in 2025 due to their much better resource management and more organized approach.
"El Mayo's organization looks very solid...I can see they have been doing things to better manage their resources and that can give them the upper hand," Valenzzo said.
The spiritual advisor also suggested that "Los Chapitos" might be close to striking an alliance with the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) in order to combat "La Mayiza" and drive them out of Sinaloa. Valenzzo said that although there are signs that show both drug cartels are close to working together, their alliance will only be temporary as they both have different ways to operate their enterprises.
"Things have not consolidated yet due to the many differences between both groups," Valenzzo said. "There have been approaches, but all alliances will be temporary," she added.
The prediction validates what José Luis Montenegro, a journalist that specializes in drug cartels, told Infobae Mexico back in July. He said that the reason behind a possible alliance between the CJNG and "Los Chapitos" would be to gain more territory across Mexico, as they are the cartels with the largest number of cities and states under their control.
Homicides in Sinaloa surpassed the 1,000 threshold in 2024
Authorities in Sinaloa reported that the number of homicides in 2024 surpassed that of the previous five years.
According to media outlet Noroeste, for the first time since 2019 Sinaloa surpassed the 1,000-homicide threshold in a single year.
Data from the National Public Security System (SESNSP) says that the majority of all homicides committed in 2024 took place since the violent conflict erupted in September 9. Since then, 657 homicides along with 732 forced kidnappings were reported in Sinaloa, averaging 5.7 murders per day.
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