A series of polls in recent weeks show Donald Trump opening up a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in key battleground states, but CNN analyst Harry Enten suggested that the former president's position might not be a strong as it looks. Rather than underestimating Trump's support for the third presidential election in a row, he said, they are more likely over-correcting in the other direction.
"What normally happens is the pollsters catch on, 'hey, we’re underestimating. We’re not taking into account some part of the electorate.' They make adjustments. And I think that helps to explain why we have never seen that the same party has been underestimated three times in a row in presidential elections, at least over the last 52 years," he said.
Enten noted that no party outran the polls three election cycles in a row nationally or in key battleground states since 1972. The polls underestimating Trump yet again, he said, "would be historically unprecedented," even if Trump himself might also be historically unprecedented.
In the 2022 midterms, polls underestimated Democratic support by around four points, with a predicted red wave in Congress pulled back by a Democratic undertow and netting only a 10 seats for the GOP. Enten suggested that if a similar phenomenon occurred this time around, Harris would win all the battleground states.
“Maybe that’ll happen,” he said. “Maybe it’ll happen. But I think that there are folks who are undressing the underestimating the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls, at least a week out.”
