On Monday, the CEO of one of the biggest banks in the world, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan & Chase Co (NYSE:JPM) made a bearish statement on the markets. In this news algo-driven market, statements like these will have a negative impact on the market.
This isn't the first time Dimon has cast gloom and doom on the markets and proven to be wrong.
Of course, the timing and circumstances of his most recent prediction are much different, but it is certainly worth revisiting. Hopefully for all investors, big and small, he will be wrong again.
'This Is Serious': During Monday’s interview with CNBC, Dimon emphasized the precarious state of the U.S. economy.
The U.S. economy is “actually still doing well” in his view, Dimon said, and he acknowledged the environment should not be compared to the 2008 global financial crisis that resulted in a worldwide recession.
His expectation is for a recession to occur in the next six to nine months.
Dimon warned of continued volatility in the markets that may result in a much deeper retreat. When asked about the potential downside from current levels, Dimon said the S&P 500 could drop “another easy 20%” adding that “the next 20% would be much more painful than the first.”
Dimon On July 18, 2020: In the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, Dimon feared the worst. He voiced his concern in these words: “The word unprecedented is rarely used properly.”
At that time, Dimon said his bank had become more pessimistic, seeing unemployment in its default “base” scenario hitting nearly 11% by the end of 2020, 4.3% worse than when it made the same forecast in April.
In a worst-case scenario, Dimon predicted a further virus surge in the fall, resulting in more lockdowns and causing unemployment to spike to roughly 23%.
Fortunately, the virus was brought under control better than this prediction, which was aided by the Federal Reserve flooding the markets with liquidity.
Why Dimon May Be Right This Time: The circumstances are much different this time around. Instead of almost unlimited monetary easing, the Federal Reserve is ratcheting up interest rates to fight off inflation — the polar opposite of its actions in the heat of the pandemic.
In addition, the world’s geopolitical situation is at its worst point since the Cold War. The ongoing war in Ukraine and continuing tensions with China are adding further instability to the markets. To make matters worse, the European economy and banking system are on the verge of collapse.
Finally, with all the third-quarter earnings warnings already issued, it is certainly hard to be optimistic about the upcoming results.
What Is Needed: From a technical point of view, the S&P 500 has breached the June low by a considerable margin both in September and in Tuesday's session.
As of early Wednesday afternoon, the index is trading at 3,594, again below the June low of 3,666.
Dimon’s prediction of a 20% drop in the S&P 500 could become much more of a reality, as the monthly support in the index is limited until the pair of monthly lows from October and November 2020 at 3,200.
Fundamentally, any sign of retreat from the current rampant inflation with the release of the September Consumer Price Index reading on Thursday will boost investor confidence.
In addition, he may induce some “dovish” comments from the Federal Reserve Bank in the future course of interest rate hikes. Then and only then will the index have a chance of ending the year on high note.
Watch Wednesday's PreMarket Prep show here:
Benzinga file photo of Jamie Dimon by Dustin Blitchok.
