Rishi Sunak suffered two thumping by-elections defeats on Friday but the Tories held onto Boris Johnson’s former west London seat in a backlash against Sadiq Khan’s Ulez expansion.
Labour seized Selby and Ainsty, with a near record swing to the party from the Tories, with 25-year-old Keir Mather set to become the youngest MP in the Commons after overturning a 20,137 majority.
The Liberal Democrats stormed to victory in Somerton and Frome, Somerset, crushing a 19,213 Tory majority into a 11,008 vote-cushion for new MP Sarah Dyke.
But the Tory leader was spared becoming the first Prime Minister since 1968 to lose three by-elections on the same day as Labour failed to secure victory in Mr Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Local Tory councillor Steve Tuckwell won with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Mr Johnson secured in 2019.
On winning he declared: “Wow!” and swiftly put it down to the expansion of Mr Khan’s ultra low emission zone.
“It was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election,” he said.
Labour candidate Danny Beales had distanced himself from the policy, saying it was “not the right time” to expand the £12.50 daily charge for cars which fail to meet emissions standards.
Labour shadow Cabinet minister Steve Reed acknowledged Ulez had been a factor in the campaign and suggested Mr Khan should reconsider the plan.
The shadow justice secretary said: “I think those responsible for that policy will need to reflect on what the voters have said and whether there’s an opportunity to change.”
But Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC: “The Tories should not take too much comfort from it.”
He highlighted that Mr Tuckwell had cited the Ulez as the key factor rather than voters being impressed by Mr Sunak’s five key pledges on the economy, NHS and addressing the “small boats” Channel crossings.
“Even if you include what happened in that by-election and you take the three by-elections together, the average drop in Conservative support is 21 points, currently the decline in Conservative support in the polls is 18 points,” he added.
“Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us.”
On the North Yorkshire by-election, he added: “Selby wasn’t just won by Labour, it was won big and probably won by more than most people anticipated.”
The result will send alarm bells ringing for dozens of Tory MPs in former “Red Wall” seats and beyond in the North and Midlands.
After the 29 per cent swing to the Lib-Dems in Somerset, Sir John added: “We begin to see that certainly in those by-elections where the Liberal Democrats are able to concentrate their resources, and where frankly the Labourt Party is not trying, the Conservatives are now extremely vulnerable.”
However, he added: “Replicating that in a General Election will be much more difficult.”
He believes Labour will now face renewed debate over whether Sir Keir Starmer needs to abandon his “safety first, ming vase strategy” and instead give voters a “clearer offer” to “cement their loyalty to the party”.
But he may be able to argue, he added, that pursuing “bold and perhaps desirable policies” can end up “ruffling the electorate”.
In Selby and Ainsty, where the by-election was caused by the resignation of Nigel Adams an ally of Mr Johnson, Labour secured a 4,161 majority and stressed it was the highest majority the party had ever overturned in a by-election.
The swing from Conservative to Labour of 23.7 percentage points is the second largest swing managed by Labour at a by-election since 1945.
A similar swing across the country would result in it winning more seats than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, Responding to the victory, Sir Keir said: “This is a historic result that shows that people are looking at Labour and seeing a changed party that is focused entirely on the priorities of working people with an ambitious, practical plan to deliver.”
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said the Somerton and Frome result showed his party was once again winning votes in its former West Country heartland.
“The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative government,” he said.
Tory Party chairman Greg Hands described the results as “mixed” and pointed to Uxbridge stressing it was a rebuff to Mr Khan and the “Labour Party botching things, making a hash of things,” and accusing Sir Keir of “flip-flopping” on his views on Ulez.
