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Belfast Live
Belfast Live
Comment
Brendan Hughes

Analysis: Liz Truss success or failure in Northern Ireland still shaped by Brexit fall-out

A mural in Belfast depicting the Tory leadership battle as a boxing match was updated to show Liz Truss declared the winner and Rishi Sunak on the ground being counted out.

But in reality while her victory was solid with 57% of the membership vote, it was not the knock-out blow many polls and pundits had predicted.

And the triumphant image of the new Prime Minister wearing a gold belt while Brexiteer Jacob Rees Mogg raises her arm in the air does not convey her many challenges that lie ahead.

Read more: UK government's approach to Brexit left us 'all screwed', says unionist former Justice Minister

The UK's third female Prime Minister has an ever mounting in-tray of problems to address, from tackling the cost-of-living crisis to SNP calls for Scottish independence and staving off Labour's growing lead in opinion polls.

But as was the case with her predecessor Boris Johnson, the success or failure of her premiership in Northern Ireland will continue to be defined by Brexit.

Ms Truss must somehow bring an end to the impasse over the Protocol which has seen the DUP block the restoration of Stormont power-sharing.

She in theory has under eight weeks to achieve this, as the law currently requires a snap Assembly election to be called if no new Executive is formed by October 28.

Without a devolved government, the Prime Minister faces the added headache of ensuring any further funding packages to address rising bills will fully extend to Northern Ireland.

The DUP will be pleased Ms Truss has won the Tory leadership as her Westminster bill to override the Irish Sea trade deal was seen as taking a tougher line with the European Union.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's party has linked passage of the bill to returning to Stormont. There is also speculation Ms Truss could trigger Article 16, a clause in the Protocol to unilaterally suspend parts of arrangement.

Either option could provide the ladder the DUP needs to escape from the hole it has dug itself.

But the party will be wary of trusting another Conservative Prime Minister after feeling shafted in Brexit negotiations under Mr Johnson's leadership.

Ms Truss is as much of a political chameleon as the outgoing Tory leader. A Remain voter in the 2016 EU referendum, she has since embraced Brexit - rising to power with the support of the party’s Eurosceptic ERG wing.

It is remarkable that the person entrusted with tackling unionist concerns that the Protocol damages the Union was once a Lib Dem activist who called for the monarchy to be abolished.

Words of congratulations from Stormont leaders have been caveated. TUV's Jim Allister said: "Any sensible unionist will judge Ms Truss not by her words but by her actions."

Ms Truss' first big decision for Northern Ireland will be choosing the Secretary of State as part of her new Cabinet.

The choice will be a signal of intent, suggesting the seriousness with which the issues in the region are being treated.

Alternatively she could follow the example of Mr Johnson, who used the Northern Ireland Office as a holding pen for party loyalists willing to bat for the government on TV and radio.

We will not have long to wait to see the direction of travel, as the new Northern Ireland secretary will face questions in the Commons on Wednesday.

Back at the Belfast mural, Downing Street’s world-weary Larry the cat appeared to focus on Stormont, lobbying for the return of a former Secretary of State who helped restore power-sharing.

A tiny speech bubble read: "Bring back Julian Smith!"

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