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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
Politics
Dakota Smith

Analysis: LA voters liked Rick Caruso's 'can-do' message. How far will he get in November?

LOS ANGELES — Developer Rick Caruso's showing in the mayoral primary Tuesday demonstrated that a significant number of Angelenos want immediate changes on homelessness and aren't turned off by the vast fortune of a billionaire who has never held elected office.

Caruso will face U.S. Rep. Karen Bass in the general election after the two candidates topped the field. In initial results, Caruso was leading Bass, 42% to 37%, on Wednesday.

Both Democratic and Republican voters in Tuesday's election backed the developer, a onetime Republican who jumped in the race just four months ago and is seeking big changes in how City Hall is run. He has proposed, for instance, removing all land use decisions from the City Council to deter corruption.

Tuesday's results showed that his campaign — which tapped his own wealth and relied on an unprecedented $40 million in spending — resonated in the Democrat-heavy city, where voters are frustrated by the city's intractable homelessness crisis, unaffordable home prices and rising gun violence.

As Bass gathered with her supporters on election night at the W Hollywood hotel, she described the mayoral election as a "fight for the soul of our city."

Bass has touted her leadership skills and experience in state and national government, arguing that she will bring communities together to ease the homelessness crisis. She talks in nuanced terms about the problem, compared with Caruso's simpler message.

At the same time, a victory for Bass in November would make her a ground-breaking figure. She would be the first Black woman — and the first woman — to hold the office.

Bass' allies say that Caruso — whose campaign message is "Caruso can" — is offering unrealistic goals around police hiring and housing the homeless. Lofty promises helped sink past L.A. mayoral candidates: Wendy Greuel was criticized in 2013 for failing to explain how she would pay for the 2,000 new police officers she sought.

At his election night party at the Grove shopping and dining complex, Caruso attacked Bass over comments she made in a Wall Street Journal story published this week. She told the publication that the city isn't going to solve the problem of the unhoused in four years, but she hopes that "Angelenos, housed and unhoused, see a light at the end of the tunnel" after that time period.

"Whoa," Caruso told his supporters, comments that suggested he would do better than Bass. "Well, let me respond by saying this. The light at the end of the tunnel is shining bright tonight."

In the coming months, the two candidates will face scrutiny over their respective policy plans. Voter turnout is also historically larger in November.

Raphael J. Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute for Public Affairs at Cal State Los Angeles, said November's election will be "a whole new deck of cards."

By the fall, the issues could look different, Sonenshein said. Abortion could also be a relevant issue, given that the Supreme Court is widely expected to issue a ruling restricting abortion rights in some parts of the country.

"National stuff is going to affect the runoff. I don't think there's any question about that," he said. "We can't yet imagine how different November's going to be."

Caruso's candidacy also energized some voters to back other candidates to stop him from getting 50% in the primary and winning outright.

In Echo Park, voter Patrick Bailey said Tuesday that he supported Bass. There were more progressive candidates in the race, he said, but he didn't think they had a chance of winning. "I just didn't want Caruso to win," said Bailey, 35, adding that he didn't want to see a billionaire take office.

Paul Pulido, a 63-year-old security manager, cast a ballot in Lincoln Heights for Caruso. Pulido, who said he is a registered Republican, was one of several voters who told the Los Angeles Times that they were frustrated by homelessness. "I'm fed up," he said.

The initial mayoral primary results didn't match the findings of a recent University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Times. That poll, taken conducted May 24-31, showed Bass leading Caruso by 6 percentage points. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

Voters' support for a shake-up was also seen in the race for Los Angeles city controller, where newcomer Kenneth Mejia advanced to the runoff and will face City Councilman Paul Koretz,a politician with three decades of experience in elected office.

Mejia sparked a loyal following by releasing TikTok videos and billboard messages about the city budget that appear to have resonated with younger, progressive voters. Initial results showed him leading Koretz by more than 10 points.

At the same time, voters preferred familiar faces in some City Council races. In South Los Angeles, Councilman Curren Price was far ahead of the only opponent on the ballot, college administrator Dulce Vasquez. And in the San Fernando Valley, council members Bob Blumenfield and Monica Rodriguez were both easily reelected.

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(Times staff writers Jeong Park, Rachel Uranga and Benjamin Oreskes contributed to this report.)

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