Now we know the scale of Susan Hall’s challenge to beat Sadiq Khan at the next mayoral election in 2024.
A YouGov poll for Queen Mary University of London’s Mile End Institute puts the Labour candidate as having twice the backing of Londoners at the moment, 50%, compared to his Tory challenger’s 25 per cent.
These figures exclude 21% “don’t knows” who are allocated to the candidates using the pollster’s methodology.
So, this might give some hope for Ms Hall that this group is still up for grabs.
But YouGov, certainly at the moment, think they will split more in Mr Khan’s favour than hers.
Let’s say she did gain the bulk of this group.
Then another key area to look at is support for the smaller parties.
The mayoralty is being decided for the first time on first-past-the-post so it is not yet clear how the smaller parties’ votes will split, and what proportion will vote tactically.
Eleven per cent of Londoners say they will vote Green, 7% back the Lib-Dems, and 4% Reform UK.
This overall group appears unlikely to be a pool of voters that could swing behind Ms Hall to give her victory.
A decent chunk of the 4% who back Reform UK would if it could push her over the line.
The Lib-Dems may be split but probably are more likely to veer towards Mr Khan.
Most of the biggest group, the Greens, are unlikely to back Ms Hall, especially with her strong campaign to reverse the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to Outer London.
The more she revs this up, the more likely it is that Green voters will be pushed towards Mr Khan.
Ms Hall is also facing a headwind in terms of the national political picture, the background to the mayoralty race.
Labour now has a 35-point lead in London in Westminster voting intentions, down from 40 points in the spring, but far higher than in previous years.
The 35-points gap is double Labour’s lead when Mr Khan faced Shaun Bailey in 2021 when it was 18 per cent, and more than double when his rival was Zac Goldsmith in 2016, 16 per cent.
And we know how both those contests ended.
