WASHINGTON — Despite voting in higher numbers, Latinos and Asian Americans fell further behind on their share of the vote in California in the 2020 election.
The 2020 election had historic levels of participation across the board — both in California and nationwide. In California, turnout among registered voters was 67.4% — 10 points higher than in 2016.
Even though the amount of Latinos and Asian Americans voting in California increased in 2020, they did not increase their voting numbers as much as other groups did.
In fact, the gap widened between those two groups and all other ethnic and racial groups, including white Californians, between 2016 and 2020, according to a new study by the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California.
“Everybody increased, but Latinos and Asian Americans did not increase as much,” said Mindy Romero, the author of the study.
“You don’t just want to look at the increase or the decrease, but the gap. So it wasn’t lessened but exacerbated,” Romero added. “That’s not only surprising, but disappointing. We thought we’d have a story of a more representative electorate.”
Additionally, the study looked at youth turnout in California, which it defined as voters between the ages of 18 and 24. Numerous news reports have painted Generation Z as a more politically involved generation than preceding generations, and voting among that group did increase by about 10 points in California between 2016 and 2020.
However, the gap between participation rates of youth voters and California’s overall population remained unchanged in 2020 compared to 2016.
Turnout rates
Latinos in California, for example, made up about 24% of California voters in 2020, up from 23% in 2016. But the gap between the turnout rate of Latinos who are eligible to vote compared with the overall population in California widened in 2020, increasing about 4 points between 2016 and 2020.
Latinos make up about 30.5% of the voter population in California, according to the study, so numbers are still lagging significantly.
There’s a similar story among Asian Americans in California. The group increased its share of the vote in California in 2020, to 10% from 8% in 2016. But the gap between the turnout rate of voting-eligible Asian Americans and the overall population in California widened by a point, from 19% in 2016 to 20% in 2020.
“I think people made the mistake of thinking really high turnout would mean the same disparities wouldn’t exist, and they’re not just going to go away,” Romero said. “We still have 30% of eligible Californians who didn’t participate, and the disparities don’t just disappear. There’s a lot of work that still needs to be done.”
A key barrier for those groups is voter registration, Romero said. Latinos and Asian Americans in California lag far behind their white neighbors in voter registration rates. And even in states like California that have same-day voter registration, that doesn’t help if those groups aren’t informed, according to Romero.
“Not everyone is starting at a level playing field when it comes to their access to voting,” Romero said. “We’ve made tremendous progress in this state in the past few years at seeing registrations reach record levels. But the disparity is still about the same.”
It’s also hard to say if the pandemic had a disproportionate effect on these groups and their voting habits without another study, Romero said.
“It could be the political context motivated more white voters, or the pandemic impacted voters of color more,” Romero said. “We don’t know, but I suspect it could be a little bit of both.”
California Democrats lost four seats in the House of Representatives to Republicans in the 2020 election. Analysis of racial and ethnic turnout in specific districts is not yet available, but decreased voter participation by minority groups typically hurts Democratic candidates.
“The shape of the electorate in a presidential race is perceived as a benefit to Democrats,” Romero said. “But the shape of the electorate among the ethnicity groups that skew Democratic, we didn’t see the increased diversity at the level we typically would see in such a high turnout year.”
Youth turnout
Overall, youth eligible turnout was about 47% in 2020, up from 37% in 2016. That’s a high turnout rate for young people, but they still didn’t close the 20-point gap between the participation rates of youth voters and California’s overall population that existed in 2016.
Youth turnout in California was relatively high in 2016 as well.
“They are a political force, but they’re still very underrepresented,” Romero said.
“We know that the youth vote did vary significantly across the state,” she added. “There were areas where they punched above their weight on their numbers, and had a strong impact on elections.”
The salience or importance of elections highly influences the youth vote, Romero said. So while USC is currently looking into where youth turnout was highest and doesn’t have specific numbers yet, Romero said there’s a chance they’ll see higher youth participation rates in battleground districts.
