Results from the 2022 midterms show less competition for House seats than seen in 2020 and 2018. While races are still more competitive than the norm during the Obama years, it appears that the Trump-era disruption – which saw 102 seats in play in 2018 – is dissipating.
It is unclear whether this is due to a natural settlement into a new status quo, as parties have adapted to shifting regional voting preferences or a result of the newest redistricting since the 2020 Census. Also, widespread changes in the way people vote brought on by the 2020 pandemic may have made seats safer for incumbents.
In the 2022 U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections, the winning candidate’s margin of victory (MOV) was ten percentage points or fewer in 85 races and five percentage points or fewer in 46 races.
Ten of the races decided by ten percentage points or fewer were for the U.S. Senate, and 75 were for the U.S. House. Six of the races decided by five percentage points or fewer were for the U.S. Senate, while 40 were for the U.S. House.
Congressional elections decided by ten percentage points or fewer represent approximately 18% of the 470 U.S. Congressional elections in 2022. Congressional elections decided by five percentage points or fewer represent approximately 10%.
The 85 congressional races decided by ten percentage points or fewer in 2022 are four fewer than the 89 races decided by the same margin in 2020. In 2018, 102 were decided by ten percentage points or fewer. In 2016, 42 were, and in 2014, 56 were.
The Republican candidate won 34 of these elections in 2022, down from 45 in 2020. The Democratic candidate won 51, up from 44 in 2020 and the highest number since 2014.
The 46 Congressional races decided by less than five percentage points or fewer in 2022 are four more than the 42 races decided by the same margin in 2020. In 2018, 50 were decided by five percentage points or fewer or less. In 2016, 42 were, and in 2014, 56 were.
The Republican candidate won 20 of those races in 2022, up from 19 in 2020. The Democratic candidate won 26, up from 23 in 2020 and the highest number since 2014.
Political experts do not consider races with a 10%+ margin remotely competitive, barring extreme circumstances. Of those, generally only those races with a less than 5% margin are considered truly in play.
Produced in association with Ballotpedia.
