The Labour Party assumed Meka Whaitiri was on their team for the October election and by the time a colleague asked, she’d already decided to jump ship, writes political editor Jo Moir
Analysis: By early 2017, speculation was rife that Willie Jackson was making his return to politics to contest the Tāmaki Makaurau seat for Te Pāti Māori.
He had been in talks with the party for months and just a few days out from Waitangi commemorations he announced on air during his radio show that he was leaving to take another run at Parliament.
A few days later at Waitangi he stood alongside then-Labour leader Andrew Little and declared Te Pāti Māori was “besotted with iwi leadership” and hadn’t done enough to progress Treaty of Waitangi settlements.
He had instead chosen to go with Labour.
READ MORE: * Whaitiri quits Labour for Te Pāti Māori * Big decisions loom on Labour MPs' futures * 'Blackmail' allegation over Whaitiri altercation and stand-down
Six years later Jackson is now a senior government minister in charge of Labour’s Māori electorate campaign.
Despite his deep knowledge and ongoing connection with both parties – Te Pāti Māori President John Tamihere is Jackson’s close friend – he was completely blindsided by his colleague Meka Whaitiri jumping ship.
Jackson admitted to Newsroom on Wednesday that Labour “assumed” Whaitiri, the MP for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, was running for them but nobody had asked her.
Instead, she has been in secret talks with Tamihere and Te Pāti Māori after approaching them.
By the time her ministerial colleague and former partner, Kiri Allan, got to Hastings on Wednesday morning to ask what she was planning, Whaitiri had already made up her mind.
Five months out from the election Whaitiri had chosen Te Pāti Māori.
Whaitiri has a lot to lose, giving up a ministerial post and a safe seat, to instead gamble that her Labour voters will follow her, and that Te Pāti Māori will be needed in any government formed after the October election.
Some within Labour have told Newsroom her motivation might have been the change in leadership and direction of the party under Chris Hipkins.
But Te Pāti Māori is lining up high-profile candidates. Whaitiri is a huge coup, as are former Labour MP Louisa Wall and boxer-turned-charity worker Dave Letele, who are both tipped to run in general seats for the party.
Ironically, it was rumours about star candidates in 2017 that prompted Little to pick up the phone to Jackson to find out what he was planning.
Jackson went on to be a huge part of the success behind Labour winning back all seven of the Māori seats in 2017.
It lost Waiariki to Te Pāti Māori in 2020 and Labour has accepted it’s unlikely to get it back, something Labour candidate Tāmati Coffey also realised and which prompted his decision to step down from politics at the election.
Te Tai Hauāuru would have been safe if Adrian Rurawhe was running, but after taking on the role of Speaker of the House he decided not to stand for re-selection this year.
Rurawhe has the strong support and grassroots campaign of the Ratana Church behind him and while Labour will be hoping that transfers to backbench MP Soraya Peke-Mason, there’s concern about how much favour Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer has.
It will be a close race.
Now Labour is on the hunt for a new candidate in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti to run against Whaitiri, who has held the seat with substantial majorities for the past decade.
Jackson told Newsroom Labour has a good relationship with Te Pāti Māori and has “no reason to bag them”. He accepts Whaitiri has a good chance because of the standing she holds in the region.
However, he denies it will be an easy ride given the long history Labour has in that seat.
This won’t be a campaign like 2017 when Labour went out to destroy Te Pāti Māori.
The polls show they will more than likely need each other in government and based on the response from Whaitiri’s colleagues on Wednesday, most are just disappointed to see her go.
Jackson says she’s a mate and a strong advocate for Māori, and he simply “wishes her the best”.
He also hopes she will respond to one of his many messages or pick up the phone at some point so she can tell him why she made the decision to go.
Some within Labour have told Newsroom her motivation might have been the change in leadership and direction of the party under Chris Hipkins.
That would go some way to explaining her decision not to tell him she was crossing the floor, waiting until he was out of the country to break the news and refusing to answer his phone calls.
There was nothing tidy about Whaitiri’s waka-jumping on Wednesday but the fact nobody in Labour has criticised her for it shows just how much they think they might need Te Pāti Māori in five months’ time.
Others have told Newsroom it might be personal, having to do with her being overlooked for a promotion back into Cabinet after putting her head down and not causing any controversy since being brought back into the executive after a period on the outer due to an altercation with a staffer.
Nobody seems to know the answer, not even Allan who spent a long time talking to her about the decision.
The only hint Whaitiri gave on Wednesday was that the decision wasn’t “an easy one but was the right one” and that she was returning home.
Her homecoming required her cousin, Heather Te Au-Skipworth, to graciously step aside after already being announced by Te Pāti Māori as their candidate in the seat.
Whaitiri was emotional at her tūrangawaewae, Waipatu Marae, in Hastings on Wednesday morning.
She didn’t attend Labour’s Māori caucus on Tuesday and wasn’t in Parliament on Wednesday – she’d been granted leave by the whips for what now appears to have been a cover for her to announce her new alliance.
The transition between Labour and Te Pāti Māori appears a relatively easy one for politicians, having happened on more than one occasion in the past.
National leader Christopher Luxon basically ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori after the election in his weekly media interviews on Wednesday before Whaitiri’s news was officially confirmed.
He sees the party as firmly part of the Labour/Green bloc, and not a kingmaker at all.
There was nothing tidy about Whaitiri’s waka-jumping on Wednesday but the fact nobody in Labour has criticised her for it shows just how much they think they might need Te Pāti Māori in five months’ time.
