Public broadcaster Doordarshan telecast The Kerala Story, a film that seeks to tarnish the State and particularly its Muslims, in the midst of the election campaign. The telecast of the controversial film was questioned by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), but some Christian groups organised their own screenings of the movie. This was not the first sign of a dissonance between the Christian and Muslim communities of the State.
Pathanamthitta is a hotspot of these tensions. The BJP fielded Anil K. Antony, the son of Congress leader A.K. Antony, as its candidate from the constituency. The district has the lowest total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.3, the highest literacy rate (96.9%) and proportion of elderly population (18%) for the entire country. It records a large outflow of its own young population and a constant inflow of people. Between 2001 and 2011, its population fell from 12.34 lakh to 11.95 lakh.
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Population growth is declining for all communities across the country and in Kerala, but this decline is uneven across regions and communities. Kerala as a whole has TFR well below the national average but varies across communities. Social indices and income levels, not religion, are the key determinants of demographic trends for India as a whole. The total TFR of Kerala is 1.79; for Christians, it is 1.77; for Hindus, 1.53; and for Muslims, it is 2.25.
Demographic shifts
Uneven demographic trends across regions and communities are going to be a challenge for Indian federalism going forward, but Pathanamthitta is instructive. The 2008 delimitation reduced the district’s representation in the Kerala Assembly from seven to five seats. The district’s religious composition is 56.93% Hindus, 38.12% Christians and 4.60% Muslims. Kozhikode (56.2% Hindus, 39.24% Muslims, 4.26% Christians) gained an additional seat (now 13) and Malappuram (27.6% Hindus, 70.24% Muslims, 1.98% Christians) gained four seats to reach 16. These demographic shifts form the backdrop of the call of church leaders for Christians to have more children, and charges of ‘love jihad’, in response to inter-religious marriages.
Alongside outmigration, Pathanamthitta also receives in-migrants, 1.6 lakh of them, according to a 2021 estimate. This will gradually change the population mix of the district but at the moment, it is a triangular balancing of interests and prejudices of the three communities, and the dynamics of sects and castes within each of them. A large segment of Kerala population is keenly engaged with global conflicts, which is partly the social remittance from diaspora populations in West Asia and the West. Christians are increasingly moving for permanent settlement in the West, but the Muslims mostly return from West Asia to Kerala, creating an economic dimension also to the demographic shifts. The conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque by Turkiye in 2020, and the ongoing Gaza crisis appear to have widened the gap between the communities. The LDF, UDF and the BJP are jostling for advantage in this social quicksand.
New equations
The shift of Pathanamthitta district from the UDF to the LDF – which won all five Assembly seats in 2021 – can be partly explained by the latter’s new inroads among the Christian and Muslim communities. Christians who see the UDF as being dominated by the Indian Union Muslim League find the CPI(M) attractive; and so do segments of the Muslims and Christians that find the UDF inadequate in its response to the BJP. The unusual second term won by the LDF in 2021 was built on this new social coalition.
The BJP is trying to test its endurance. “The trust of the Christian community in us has grown stronger and we will continue to do everything possible for their welfare,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said during the campaign. The BJP hopes to build a coalition of Christians and Hindus, premised on their shared insecurities with regard to Muslims. The response is uneven.
The Believers Eastern Church declared its support for Mr. Anil Antony, in a first for a church, but Theodosius Mar Thoma XXII Metropolitan, the head of the Mar Thoma Church, called for voting to uphold India’s pluralism and secularism. At the annual convention of the revivalist Indian Pentecostal Church last year, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Congress leader V.D. Satheesan and Goa Governor P.S. Sreedharan Pillai were speakers, each making their political pitch.
Mr. Pillai, a BJP veteran, explained the ethnic roots of the violence in Manipur, which is seen as anti-Christian by the community. Among other factors that continue to make the community suspicious of the BJP is the regulation of foreign contributions that restricts churches from receiving funds even from members abroad. Moreover, the three communities live extremely interconnected lives in Kerala. Two recent reports alone are instructive. In Malappuram, the 400-year-old Muthuvallur Sree Durga Bhagavathy Temple is being renovated with the support of Muslims. The Nicholas Memorial CSI Church in Manjeri in Malappuram opened its premises for Id prayers this year after a ground that Muslims generally used was not available.
The LDF projects itself as the most authentic anti-BJP front for the Muslims and an escape platform for Christians unhappy with the Congress and unsure of the BJP. The BJP’s calculations are based on suggesting a shared demographic threat perception among the Hindus and Christians. As for the Congress, a return to power in Kerala will depend largely on its ability to bring back the Christians and Muslims together under its umbrella.
