It was never a question of whether Justin Jefferson would become the highest-paid receiver in the NFL, but rather whether Minnesota would be willing to pay.
Both questions were answered Monday morning with the agreement of a four-year, $140 million contract extension that includes $110 million guaranteed. He’s sticking around in Minneapolis through 2028, resetting the receiver market.
For the San Francisco 49ers, the price just went up for Brandon Aiyuk.
For the Dallas Cowboys, welcome to a starting point in talks with CeeDee Lamb.
For the Cincinnati Bengals, if there were any talks of keeping both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, those talks just ended before they could pick back up.
The trio of receivers are looking to be compensated for their efforts in three-plus years, but also might be able to tack on a few extra dollars given the influx market.
For the Houston Texans, any concerns about paying top dollar for a top receiver ceased last week when Nico Collins inked a three-year deal worth $72.5 million.
Nico Collins gets it done no matter the coverage 😤 https://t.co/R4bzJwhVfC pic.twitter.com/hGxWVa4Gio
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) May 28, 2024
And thankfully for them, it happened before Monday’s megadeal for Jefferson. That’s a conversation and headache worth avoiding in 2024.
Collins, the Texans’ third-round pick and first hit of the Nick Caserio era, has all the makings of a legitimate No. 1 target, hauling in 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns.
Collins presented problems for opposing defenses last season. In 15 games, the former Michigan standout ranked sixth in passer rating (128.4) when targeted and sixth in catch rate (73.9%) on in-breaking routes. He also totaled 275 yards on routes over 25-plus yards downfield.
And he’s only one-third of the problem at NRG Stadium this fall. If cornerbacks aren’t locked on him, they’re on WR Tank Dell, who had a breakout rookie season.
Not him? Well, maybe they’re targeting four-time Pro Bowl WR Stefon Diggs, who joined the franchise in a trade this offseason. And if Collins is blanketed, that means someone else is open.
Nico Collins turned this screen into a 15-yard touchdown to give the #Texans a 10-7 lead – set up by great action from Stroud and Singletary on fake toss & Laremy Tunsil blocking his ass off. pic.twitter.com/4bILVh9EJJ
— Shaun Bijani (@ShaunBijani) January 14, 2024
Dell, who nearly broke Andre Johnson’s team receiving yardage record by a rookie, is locked up through 2026. So is Dalton Schultz. And Collins, who now averages just over $24 million in annual salary, will be here a year later, the same time quarterback C.J. Stroud enters the final year of his rookie deal.
By that point, $24 million will look puny compared to the lucrative deals for players who could end up having weaker production.
Who knows if Collins’ breakout 2023 season is his ceiling? When on the field, he’s dealt with inadequate quarterback play that factored into 11 wins over three years.
Injuries don’t help his case, either. Collins missed 12 games in three seasons, including two this past season. Should he miss games, Houston now can turn to Diggs or Dell.
Still, the Texans are betting on Collins’ upside. They see a receiver who won’t turn 30 until after his second contract and hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently.
What would Collins’ numbers be if he played in December? Over 1,300 yards with 10 scores and 100 receptions? How much more would he have wanted now entering a contract year?
At this point in their careers, teams know what to expect from Mike Evans, A.J. Brown and Calvin Ridley, who each received significant deals in the offseason. Collins’ upside remains unknown as he enters all top 10 conversations among pass-catchers entering 2024.
That’s a good thing. It’s terrifying, but a positive thing when talking about Collins’ potential. He might be worth $24.1 million.
He might be worth more but on a team-friendly deal. Given his mild attitude internally, it’s hard to imagine Collins’ having a problem with his current contract regardless of what others around him are making.
Jefferson will be paid, but his hopes for getting to a Super Bowl reside in the hands of rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Lamb should get a deal done soon, but who knows what happens to Dallas with Dak Prescott’s contract up in the air.
YOU CAN’T TACKLE NICO COLLINS 😤pic.twitter.com/jZXzbBAgTU
— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) January 13, 2024
Aiyuk will get his money, but will it be from San Francisco? The same goes for Higgins, who has yet to sign his franchise tag tender. Who knows if the Bengals’ Super Bowl window is open even with Chase paid up?
The Texans have a receiver who is happy, compensated and locked up on a roster ready to go for a run through the postseason.
That seems like a win all around.
