WHEN TO EXPECT RESULTS
As Americans head to the polls, the world is holding its breath with the first results just hours away. For weeks now pollsters have said the 2024 US election has been too close to call — soon we’ll see how accurate they were and just how tight the vote is going to be.
The ABC has a handy guide on when to expect results in Australian time, with the broadcaster flagging the polls in all but one of the vital swing states will have closed by 1pm AEDT today. A few hours later, at around 3pm, the ABC reckons we should have a good understanding of what’s going on even though a final result may be some way off.
As has been mentioned many times during the breathless coverage, all eyes are on a few key states, with the likes of Pennsylvania seen as crucial for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s chances of getting to 270 electoral votes and making it to the White House.
There is also the “red mirage” and “blue mirage” phenomenon to take into account. Reuters explains by highlighting how in 2020 Trump was ahead in some states on election night before Joe Biden overtook him as mail ballots favoured by Democrats were counted. The newswire says this could happen again, potentially in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while the opposite could happen in North Carolina and Georgia.
In terms of what’s happened so far today, Trump has voted with his wife Melania in Florida. The Guardian reports he declared he was feeling “very confident”, while The New York Times quotes him as saying: “If I lose an election, if it’s a fair election, I’m going to be the first one to acknowledge it, and I think it’s — well, so far, I think it’s been fair.” The 78-year-old said there should be no violence after the election, declaring: “My supporters are not violent people. I don’t have to tell them that.” Asked if he expected this would be his last campaign, he said: “Yeah, I would think so.”
Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance has also voted in Cincinnati and will later join Trump in Palm Beach to await the results. The NYT reports billionaire and owner of social platform X, Elon Musk, will also spend election night with Trump.
Harris, who voted early by mail, has been conducting radio interviews on Tuesday morning and told Atlanta station WVEE-FM: “We’ve got to get it done. Today is voting day, and people need to get out and be active,” the BBC reports.
CNN flags a Harris campaign official reckons, as of 11am ET, more than 100,000 doors have been knocked on by campaign staffers and volunteers across the battleground state of Pennsylvania on Tuesday. Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz has been in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, hoping to mobilise voters in the crucial battleground state. Harris told the Pittsburgh-based radio show The Big K Morning Show with Larry Richert she was having dinner with her family before her election night party at Howard University.
With every vote certain to be fought over, the BBC says there has already been some legal action in Pennsylvania and according to The New York Times, a software malfunction prevented voters from scanning their ballots in Cambria County.
The Guardian flags the Election Lab at the University of Florida has said 82 million Americans voted early this election, with just under 45 million voting early in person and about 38 million voting early by mail. Fittingly given how close the polling has been, the first results of the election — from the tiny resort town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire — resulted in its six voters being split 3-3 between Harris and Trump, the BBC adds.
Meanwhile, AAP says there will be a series of events in Australia to mark the results coming in. In Canberra the Democrats Abroad are hosting a watch party, the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia are holding an event at The Hawthorn Hotel in Melbourne, and Republican supporters will be at Sydney’s Sanctuary Hotel for what they’ve dubbed a “Trump reelection party”.
RBA ‘NOT RULING ANYTHING IN OR OUT’
While all eyes will be on the US election today, yesterday attention was fixed on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Despite the central bank doing exactly what was predicted and holding the cash rate steady at 4.35%, the decision has still attracted plenty of attention overnight.
The AAP says some economists had been expecting a more pronounced shift in tone from the RBA with inflation falling and forecasts updated. Attention has been drawn by some to this paragraph from the board’s statement on Tuesday: “While headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high. The November SMP forecasts suggest that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range and approaching the midpoint. This reinforces the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the board is not ruling anything in or out.”
Treasurer Jim Chalmers attempted to spin the decision by saying the fact it had been more than a year since interest rates had gone up was due to the government’s efforts in tackling inflation. “What this shows is that we’ve been able to fight inflation without ignoring risks to growth and without sacrificing the gains that we have made in the labour market,” he told Parliament.
Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor meanwhile told reporters in Canberra: “They have not solved the underlying problem here, the government is way short of solving that underlying problem. And of course, core inflation is not expected to get back to the target for two years, for two years, so much more pain to go in terms of price increases.”
The Australian and the AFR both report RBA governor Michele Bullock has urged federal and state governments not to stoke inflation with big-spending election promises. The former quotes Bullock as saying she believed the treasurer was “fully aware of the inflationary implications of his own policies”. She added: “He needs to be thinking about that because he — like me — understands that inflation is really what’s hurting people at the moment. I think that the governments are well aware that inflation is the big thing here … and I expect they will be very conscious of it.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is addressing business leaders at an Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry dinner in Canberra today and is due to claim the worst may be over for the economy.
AAP trails the PM’s speech in which he is set to say: “When we look at our economy today, we can be optimistic that the rewards of that resilience are now in sight. There is new cause to hope that the worst is behind us. I’ve never been more optimistic about Australia’s future.”
The newswire also flags Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt is expected to face a grilling when his portfolios are interrogated in Senate estimates later today.
Meanwhile, Guardian Australia highlights data from the Australian Taxation Office which shows Australian workers missed out on a record $5.2 billion of superannuation that employers failed to pay last financial year. The report also says $1.4 billion is likely to go unpaid as it is owed by insolvent companies.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
Move over Moo Deng, there’s a new cute pygmy hippo in town.
Haggis, a tiny hippo calf, was born at Edinburgh Zoo on October 30, the BBC reports. In one of many posts on social media featuring the baby hippo, the zoo wrote: “Otto and Gloria have welcomed an ADORABLE pygmy hippo calf! She is doing well, but we’ll be keeping the hippo house closed for the time being so that our expert keepers can keep a close eye on mum and baby at this sensitive time.”
The BBC says there are thought to only be around 2,500 pygmy hippos left in the wild worldwide. As flagged in a previous Worm back in September, the baby pygmy hippo Moo Deng, from the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Thailand, became an internet superstar this year after her keepers started posting clips of her on TikTok.
Jonny Appleyard of Edinburgh Zoo is quoted by the BBC as saying: “While Thailand’s Moo Deng has become a viral global icon, it is important to remember that pygmy hippos are incredibly rare.
“It is great to have our own little ambassador right here in Edinburgh to connect with our visitors and help raise awareness of the challenges the species face in the wild.”
Say What?
Folks, this election is going to be close.
Barack Obama
The former president’s video, released on social media on election day, starts with a rather obvious statement before going on to say “in some states, just a handful of votes in every precinct could decide the winner”. No prizes for guessing who he said viewers should vote for in his plea for people to go out and vote.
CRIKEY RECAP
The whole idea of effective government working to deliver for voters might thus be flawed. Trump supporters don’t care about how bad a president he was. They don’t really care what he did or does; they care about who he is and how he enrages the people they despise. The key is to vote for Trump in the first place, as a way of expressing hatred of African-Americans, Hispanics, Muslims, women, “liberals”. The more transgressive and norm-breaking Trump is in that context, the better. What he does once he’s in power isn’t the point.
If anything, the idea that Trump is a dysfunctional leader might be part of his appeal, because it means government will work for no-one — not for angry white voters who already believe the political and economic system is skewed against them, and not for the groups they despise and whom they believe the system is rigged for.
Trump is their revenge for a system they think has been hostile to them for decades. He’ll destroy the whole rotten order. He is their Samson, ready to bring the whole damn temple down on everyone’s heads. The righteous — the white — will be spared. They don’t need a government in the land of the free. But the rest… not so much. Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.
Harris is joined in Pittsburgh by Republican Donald Trump, who will be addressing his crowd at a clashing (in every sense of the word) event across town at the PGP Paints Arena. Crikey had applied for credentials from both campaigns: Harris’ team eventually granted it, but Trump’s people — despite the fact they could do with the crowd numbers — denied us a door spot. (We’re in decent company, with reporters from The Washington Post, Axios and Vanity Fair also having been knocked back).
Given Trump’s rhetoric on matters of unfriendly media, I was both amused and terrified at the thought of a campaigner googling an Australian news outlet called Crikey and “Donald Trump” and finding, say, Bernard Keane’s assessment of the events of January 6.
This Harris campaign event was initially slated for Point State Park, before a late change shifted it here. In the fenced-off media scrum, I ask a local reporter whether that was down to potential clashes between supporters. “Maybe it’s that, maybe it’s traffic? But also, Mount Washington is right there, there are buildings all around,” he says, before then miming speaking into a radio. “I think if I’m a Secret Service guy, I’m looking at that set-up and saying, ‘No fucking way’.”
“I know!” a local AFP reporter chimes in. “When I heard where it was, I thought, ‘Haven’t they ever seen Jack Reacher?‘”
The US election is arguably the most-watched foreign vote in Australia. So it’s perhaps unsurprising that our most powerful people have had lots to say about this year’s nail-biter.
Those who will have to conduct diplomacy with whoever wins have been careful to hedge their bets, while others, like mining magnate Gina Rinehart, have been shameless about picking sides.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
When will we know the result of the US presidential election? (The Guardian)
Mystery fires were Russian ‘test runs’ to target cargo flights to US (BBC)
Netflix Europe offices raided in tax fraud probe (The Hollywood Reporter)
China’s latest cry for more babies may fall on deaf ears (Reuters)
Search for the missing grows desperate amid mud and confusion in Spain (The New York Times) ($)
Ukrainian troops have engaged with North Korean units for the 1st time in Russia, an official says (Associated Press)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Trump, Harris and peace in our time — Gideon Rachman (The Financial Times): Harris and the Democrats think that both Republican camps could get America involved in another war. A full-scale attack on Iran would, they argue, lead inevitably to US involvement in another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.
But the policy of restraint, as implemented by Trump, carries its own risks. Trump’s wariness of foreign entanglements is closely linked to his deep suspicion of many US allies, who he has often said are ripping Americans off. For the Democrats, however, a policy of “peace through strength” must rest on America’s network of global allies, which they see as the country’s greatest asset in any effort to deter Russia or China.
In any event, it is worth remembering that campaign arguments are an imperfect guide to what actually happens in the real world. In the 1916 presidential election, Woodrow Wilson campaigned as the peace candidate. A year later, he led America into the First World War.
There still be inflation sea monsters ahead for Captain Bullock — Shane Wright (The Sydney Morning Herald): Both sides are warned that big-spending election promises, particularly around infrastructure, would prove problematic on the inflation front.
And while Donald Trump is not mentioned by name, his presence is like a shark, just below the ocean’s surface, with the Reserve warning of “heightened geopolitical risks and potentially large changes to the global trade and fiscal policy outlook”.
Captain Bullock maintains the current course will deliver lower inflation and lower interest rates. She just doesn’t want to declare mission accomplished yet.
