Your guide to what just happened in the US midterm elections and why the result is some way off
The day after the US midterm elections and, much like the 2020 Presidential election there is no clear winner (and may not be for some months). Below is a brief analysis of the battle for the Senate and House of Representatives, some speculation on when we might have a final decision, and some discussion of key influences on yesterday’s vote.
Pre-election polling and historical trends (mid-term elections with poor economic conditions and an unpopular President have always heavily favoured the party out of government) suggested the possibility of a Red Wave – with the Republican Party favoured to take control of both Houses. American voters seem to have had slightly different ideas.
The Senate
The race for the Senate remains on a knife edge but is leaning toward the incumbent Democratic Party. On current projections the Democrats have 48 Seats and the Republicans 49, with three key seats yet to be determined (Arizona, Georgia and Nevada). Of those, Arizona is leaning Democrat while the other two are more of a tossup. There are two complicating factors here – the first is that both parties need to win two of these contested seats for control, because the Democrats hold the tie breaker in the event of a 50-50 split. The second is that Georgia’s own election rules are likely sending their Senate election to a December runoff election, as happened in 2020, because as things stand neither candidate is likely to reach a 50 percent majority. Currently the incumbent, Raphael Warnock, has a roughly one percentage point lead over Trump-backed, controversial figure Herschel Walker, but is sitting at around 49.4 percent of the vote – making a December runoff highly likely.
Short of a significant swing in Nevada or Arizona, it seems likely we will have to wait until December to know the outcome of the Senate race.
The House
The Republican Party remains strongly favoured to win control of the House but it was far from the rout that many pollsters and commentators were expecting. It will likely take days for the counting of mail-in and absentee ballots before we get a final idea of where the House stands, though it looks likely that the Republican Party will gain a small majority.
What does seem clear is that Democratic candidates have outperformed almost all projections, despite President Biden’s low popularity, record inflation and dire predictions about the country’s short-term economic future.
Analysis
The Roe Effect
Pollsters and the Republican leadership seem to have underestimated the impact of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision in June, which overturned Roe v. Wade and removed constitutional protection for abortion rights. Dobbs gave a faltering Democratic campaign a massive boost both in support and funding and helped to fuel a backlash against some of the more right-wing Republican candidates.
Political theorists and pollsters regularly note that economic issues trump social issues come election time – but the strength of feeling around Dobbs and the fury at the way the Republican Party manipulated the Supreme Court toward that decision absolutely played a crucial role in these elections, helping to drive high turnout and keeping the predicted red wave at bay.
Wins for abortion rights
Five states had ballot measures (referenda) in the mid-terms connected to abortion rights, and all of those results (as currently projected) favour the protection of abortion rights or, in a couple of cases, at least declining to make abortion restrictions worse. Though early in the count, California seems to be overwhelmingly in favour of an amendment to the state constitution to enshrine reproductive freedom rights. Michigan, by a slightly narrower margin, and Vermont, by an almost 80-20 split, have done the same. Voters in Kentucky by a narrow margin look to have rejected a constitutional amendment which would have explicitly stated that no right to abortion existed, while Montana voters look likely to reject a similar measure (though both states still maintain very restrictive abortion laws).
This probable clean sweep validates the view that abortion rights and reproductive freedom played a crucial role in this election – and vindicates the Democratic strategy to make those rights a core part of their campaign. It is also a strong popular rebuke of the actions of the Supreme Court and the Republican leadership for their opposition to abortion rights.
A rebuke of Trump?
It is highly unusual to see a former president so heavily involved in a mid-term campaign – though many of us are no longer surprised by anything Donald Trump does. Trump here was deeply involved in the Republican mid-term campaign, driving much of the strategy and candidate selection for a party which, despite the events of January 6, 2021, the scandals and investigations, bigotry and other controversies, remains very much stuck in Trump’s sphere.
Many of Trump’s personally selected candidates underperformed in the tight races – and while the former president will crow loudly about his success in other areas (a number of his hand-picked candidates won safe seats with little or no opposition), a closer look shows that voters may have taken a (very small) step back from the extremist politics that Trump promotes
Conclusion
Ultimately, these results show that America remains incredibly divided. Exit polls and analysis also suggest moderate Americans on both sides are not impressed with the leadership of Biden or Trump. While America seems set for a divided government for the next two years, the Democrats are likely the happier of the two parties, despite probably losing control of the House.
In a broader sense, this contest shows the need for renewal in both parties, the need for new, moderate leadership, and demonstrates again the importance of fundamental rights to concerned voters.
