A new study has determined the Amazon rainforest is approaching a “tipping point” of die-off, wherein the region will be irreversibly changed into a savanna.
More than 75% of the rainforest has shown signs of dieback in the last two decades, according to the study published in Nature Climate Change.
“Deforestation and climate change are likely the main drivers of this decline,” Technical University of Munich professor and study co-author Niklas Boers said.
The researchers found that satellite images of the rainforest showed that bigger and bigger parts of the biome were no longer fully recovering from fires and drought, with areas closer to human activity seeing the biggest losses of resilience.
“The rainforest can look more or less the same, yet it can be losing resilience — making it slower to recover from a major event like a drought,” University of Exeter’s Tim Lenton, another co-author, said.
It’s unknown how much more damage the rainforest can take before the environ is permanently altered.
“The Amazon rainforest is a highly complex system, so it’s very difficult to predict if and when a tipping point could be reached,” University of Exeter’s Chris Boulton, the study’s lead author, said.
“Many researchers have theorized that a tipping point could be reached, but our study provides vital empirical evidence that we are approaching that threshold,” Boers said. “Many interlinked factors — including droughts, fires, deforestation, degradation and climate change — could combine to reduce resilience and trigger the crossing of a tipping point in the Amazon.”
The Amazon is home to about 25% of Earth’s biodiversity and is a primary trapper of carbon dioxide, meaning the losses in the region will have global impacts.
Previous studies said dieback could occur early in the next century, but could accelerate even faster if greenhouse gas emissions did not slow down.
