Analysts say early indicators look positive for holiday e-commerce spending, as giants such as Amazon and Walmart launch Black Friday sales early. A shorter holiday shopping window this year could favor Amazon, according to a stock analyst.
Online shopping is projected to grow faster than the broader retail market this the holiday season. The average market forecast estimates U.S. e-commerce spending will grow 8.5% this year, accelerating from 7.9% growth last year, according to a tally by analysts at Wedbush Securities. Overall retail sales are expected to grow 3.6%, compared to 4.1% growth last year.
"Commentary from recent weeks suggests that while consumer demand is strong, consumers continue to look for discounts and remain relatively price sensitive," Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt wrote in a client note Monday. "Generally, expectations for U.S. e-commerce growth this holiday season are healthy and point to slightly stronger trends, outpacing broader retail growth."
Amazon Black Friday Deals
There are five fewer days in the traditional shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, Devitt noted, so many e-commerce retailers have started offering sales earlier than usual. Amazon started offering Black Friday discounts on Nov. 21, eight days early. Walmart's Black Friday deals kicked off today.
A shorter shopping period could favor Amazon, Devitt wrote.
"Amazon is better positioned than it has ever been for the holiday season, in our view, following a significant buildup in fulfillment capacity over the past several years and the company's more recent shift to a regional fulfillment network which is reducing delivery times," Devitt said in the client note. "We anticipate that quicker delivery times will be a more important factor for consumers this year given a more compressed timeline for holiday shopping."
Devitt rates Amazon stock as outperform, with a price target of 250.
Amazon Stock: Pullback From Record Highs
On the stock market today, Amazon stock gained more than 2% 201.38 in morning trading. Amazon stock has gained 30% year-to-date. But shares have trended lower for the past week after reaching an all-time high of 215.90 on Nov. 14.
Amazon stock has fallen for three straight trading days entering Monday, including a half-percent decline Friday after Amazon announced an additional $4 billion investment into AI startup Anthropic.
Shares are hovering just below a former 201.20 consolidation pattern buy point, according to IBD MarketSurge. A gain above 1.8% Monday would push the stock above its 21-day moving average line, a signal it is regaining momentum.
