While Red Bull has enjoyed a perfect record of three wins across the opening races in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Australia, in the latter event Mercedes replaced Aston Martin as the second-best team.
But the cancellation of a return to China has now left a four-week gap in the calendar until the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, across 28-30 April.
Given the pause and then a return to Europe after a run of flyaway races, teams are expected to debut their first major car upgrades packages in Baku.
The introduction of new performance-enhancing components will open the door to the competitive order changing much more often as the season wears on, reckons Alonso.
Asked by Autosport whether falling behind Mercedes in Melbourne had previewed a nip-and-tuck battle between Aston and the Three-Pointed Star, the double world champion said: “It seems that qualifying is quite important now, because race pace is very similar, and I think now we enter into a part of the season that is going to be very interesting: which team is developing the car faster?
“I think the first three races being away from Europe, it’s difficult to bring upgrades and things like that. But from now on, maybe we see the level of the teams changing a little bit, race-by-race, depending on who brings an upgrade that is good enough.”
McLaren, for example, has promised a significant update to its limited MCL60 in Baku, although has played down expectations of an immediate hit for its disappointing start to the season.
Meanwhile, Mercedes has teased promising-looking aerodynamic parts that are currently being tested in the wind tunnel and changes to the suspension set-up to boost mechanical grip.
But motorsport boss Toto Wolff says these updates will not feature until the Emilia Romagna GP in late May at the earliest.
Two-time champion Alonso indicated that even if his Aston team lost out in the development war, it could already be considered a successful season for the squad after he scored a hat-trick of podiums.
Alonso continued: “It’s all happy days at the moment. We never expected to be on the podium, maybe even throughout the season, and in three races we have three. So, everything that comes now is a plus.
He added: “We take every opportunity and we need to learn and we need to grow as a team also maybe now off-track because we are racing against Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari - teams that are used to this kind of pace of development and things like that.
“Maybe we are just in a learning process. So, we take this 2023 in a very humble manner and let’s see how it's going.”
