Aides and supporters of Niger’s deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, have welcomed the decision of France to withdraw its diplomatic staff and military from the country, saying it will deny the military junta a “scapegoat” to disguise its failings.
Bazoum, a French ally whose election in 2021 had boosted hopes of stability in the unstable Sahel state, was detained on 26 July by members of his guard. Senior soldiers took power in the unstable Sahel state shortly afterwards.
Relations with France, the country’s former colonial power and former ally in its fight against jihadism, went swiftly downhill after Paris stood by Bazoum who has remained confined in the presidential palace with his wife and son since the coup.
President Emmanuel Macron told French viewers during a televised address on Sunday that military cooperation with Niger was “over” and that French troops would withdraw by the end of the year.
“France has decided to withdraw its ambassador,” Macron told French television. “In the next hours our ambassador and several diplomats will return to France.”
The announcement appeared to end two months of defiance in which Paris’s ambassador had been kept in place in Niamey despite coup leaders ordering him to leave.
Macron added that military cooperation was over and French troops would withdraw in “the months and weeks to come”.
About 1,500 French troops have been stationed in Niger as part of a broader campaign against Islamic extremist militants across the Sahel region, but were recently reinforced when Paris was forced to redeploy forces from Mali after a military coup there.
A third coup also forced Paris to withdraw forces from Burkina Faso, another former French colony. There and in Mali, French officials have pointed to a flood of Russian propaganda as a significant destabilising force. The Kremlin has been making a big push to expand its influence and presence in sub-Saharan Africa, often at the expense of France.
Social media channels associated with the Russian state in August launched a major effort to exploit the coup in Niger, possibly seeking to open opportunities for intervention.
In his address, Macron insisted that French troops were “not [in the Sahel] to be held hostages by putschists” who he described as “friends of chaos”.
Analysts have described a near disaster for French policy in the Sahel.
Jean-Hervé Jezequel, director of the Sahel Project at International Crisis Group, said events in Niger marked “the beginning of the end of a sequence of French troops withdrawing from the central Sahel.
“It is a failure of their intervention whatever the French say. They did not stop the progress of the jihadists and they have ruined their relationship with three former colonies. It’s not a full-scale disaster for the French but very close to that,” Jezequel said.
After weeks of rallies against France, Macron’s announcement provoked apparently spontaneous celebrations in Niamey, the capital. On social media, users in Niger posted now familiar accusations that France had supported extremist groups to allow interventions designed to secure Niger’s uranium, and welcomed a victory over “neo-imperialism”.
Niger’s military leaders welcomed the French decision.
“Today we celebrate a new era … It is a historic moment which demonstrates the determination and will of the people of Niger … Neo-imperialist and colonial forces are not welcome in the territory of Niger,” they said in a statement.
France has not recognised the authority of Niger’s military leaders and is still demanding the restoration of Bazoum.
Andrew Lebovich, an expert on Niger at The Hague-based Clingendael Institute, said that the new military rulers had been able to exploit deep popular animosity towards France.
“The very significant degree of distrust of France was really underestimated [in Paris]. There’s a tendency to ascribe all of this to Russian disinformation and propaganda but, though that’s a factor, the French have had real difficulty understanding why Russian propaganda is landing on such fertile ground,” Lebovich said.
Niger is a key base for western troops in the Sahel and has for years battled against its own armed jihadist groups.
Attacks have continued since the coup, such as on 15 August when 17 Nigerien soldiers were killed.
Inhabitants of cities like Niamey and major towns have been hit by blackouts and soaring prices for basics since the coup.
“Now that France is on its way out the [regime] will have to learn to protect populations. The putchsts won’t have any scapegoat and will have to face the reality,” said Mohamed Abdelder, an adviser of Bazoum.
A second adviser of the deposed president said that the population of Niger would have to realise that “populism has its limits”.
“France was the only selling point of the junta, attracting all the attention and hiding all its internal contradictions. In withdrawing, France takes away the main propaganda argument of the junta. It’s a pragmatic and strategic decision … an act of responsibility and political clarity,” the adviser said.
The regional organisation Ecowas has imposed sanctions and threatened military intervention to restore Bazoum, though few believe this is likely to occur.
Jezequel said the junta included many senior officials and soldiers associated with unpopular former governments who had used anti-French sentiment to “reinvent themselves as newcomers”.
“The question is what next? Who is your scapegoat now you have kicked out France?,” he said. “For Sahel countries [like Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso] prospects are pretty gloomy.”
Niger’s new leaders, who justified their power grab by the deteriorating security situation and high level of corruption and say they intend to try Bazoum for “high treason”, on Thursday listed 20 members of his government as wanted.
Bazoum’s lawyer has called on an Ecowas court to free the former president in the name of “arbitrary arrest”, “violation of freedom of movement” and to restore constitutional order.
