An unexpected point limited by self-inflicted pain
This was a tale of three penalties. If Leeds United score their own and don’t give away the other two, they’re marching into Sunday outside the relegation zone. Newcastle United seemed comfortable all afternoon and rarely looked stretched at the back, yet they needed two spot-kicks to breach Joel Robles’s goal. It was an odd afternoon and Sam Allardyce was right after the game when he said individual errors were the only thing between Leeds and a victory over the league’s third-best team.
While it can be easy in this spiralling season of misery to focus on the negatives and the two points dropped, even the grandest of Leeds optimists would have surely taken a point pre-match. This is a Champions League-chasing Newcastle with eight wins from their last 10 league games and a Whites side winless in six with seven victories all season.
READ MORE: Radrizzani's final word with Leeds United players, Ayling rages on Newcastle spats in moments missed
Of the three remaining games coming into Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off, this was clearly the hardest to see any points coming from. And yet Leeds have taken a point they would not have expected, shoving Leicester City aside in the process.
Allardyce bemoaned the errors made, but will surely take something from how preventable those concessions will be going into the West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur games. Pascal Struijk was given an earful last weekend for his rash penalty-box challenge on Phil Foden, while Max Wober again showed Allardyce why he has been repeatedly telling the players to stay on their feet in the defensive third.
The system worked pretty well for the Whites, who did show more enterprise than they did seven days earlier and asked more questions of the opposition backline. The structure of the 4-3-3 seems to be working for Allardyce, but if they can make more of the half-openings they are seeing in transition they could be well set to take what they need from the last two.
The Bamford elephant in the room
In the week Patrick Bamford removed himself from the morass of Twitter, taking on a potentially season-defining penalty was a bold move. Evidently, the number nine has seen fit to distance himself from a social network which was, presumably, getting inside his head and proving a distraction.
If Bamford watches Match of the Day, he will have seen the scathing analysis of his performance at Manchester City one week earlier. These recent developments are framed against the backdrop of what has been another poor season for virtually everyone at Elland Road.
For Bamford specifically, he has at least, seemingly, left behind the injury problems which plagued last season and the first half of this. The striker has started 14 of the last 19 games in all competitions and finally looks to be putting together the minutes he needs to rediscover that 2020/21 form.
Beyond the basic fitness questions he has had to answer, Bamford has still been found wanting in front of goal. Six strikes in 30 appearances should sum up where his confidence might be between the posts.
When you weigh up the recent criticism levelled at Bamford, along with his Twitter departure, the clear problems he has had in first playing regularly and then finding the net regularly, plus the one penalty miss he already has on his record this term, it’s easy to understand the frustration with yesterday’s spot-kick. That is before you even look across to the forward on the field with one successful penalty in 22/23 and 14 goals in 32 outings this season.
Why did Rodrigo not take that penalty? A penalty which would have had Leeds two goals in front within half an hour against an overwhelming favourite, with less than three games to keep themselves in the division.
Allardyce could only point to the order established before his arrival and perhaps the lack of assertiveness from Rodrigo in sticking his hand up to take the ball. The obvious point in all of this is the opportunity Bamford saw in washing away all of those aforementioned negatives swimming through his mind.
Goals breed confidence, however they come, and as someone who has built a career on finding the onion bag, Bamford was never going to willingly turn that chance down. Hindsight allows us all to question why this was allowed to happen and why Bamford has now buried himself even deeper.
First, the last-gasp miss against Leicester City and now a miss which arguably saw two points dropped from United’s final tally. The number nine will need the backing of his team-mates and staff at Thorp Arch next week.
A tale of three full-backs
Luke Ayling and Rasmus Kristensen found the back of the net. Junior Firpo found the back of the dressing room. The full-backs at Elland Road seemed to define the day.
Ayling, as we have seen at Molineux (twice), Old Trafford, St Andrews, MKM Stadium and against Huddersfield Town, does not score inconsequential or dull goals. The right-back, who has had more than his share of highs and lows this term, popped up inside the six-yard box at the perfect moment with the goal Allardyce said the team needed.
It was a bold step from Allardyce to effectively say Leeds would crumble if they conceded first and likely go down if they lost the game with Newcastle. And yet it set Leeds up for the burst of energy the entire stadium took from that seventh-minute opener. Ayling led from the front and put in a very solid performance on a day they needed it from him against top-class opposition. Like his right-back counterpart, Kristensen is slowly developing a reputation for important Leeds goals too.
It was a quality strike, with a bit of help along the way from Kieran Trippier (another right-back), which came like a bolt from the blue. Once Newcastle had hit the front, they were expected to go on and see the game out, but Kristensen, who had been solid in central defence, found a way to get a shot on target.
As much as the right-backs had covered themselves in glory, this was another sad chapter in Junior Firpo’s Leeds story. The first 18 months of the Dominican’s time at Elland Road had been punctuated by lapses in concentration, poor positioning, rash tackles and cards, so many cards.
There were fears about the role he would play once Struijk’s concussion opened the door for Firpo at Old Trafford, but, until recently, he has been far better than expected. Firpo’s kicked on hugely in recent months, especially under Javi Gracia, and moved away from being a player many worried about when they saw his name on the teamsheet.
However, yesterday was a return to the darkest of his days in Leeds white. While he did not commit the foul for the first penalty, he was not far off it with the clumsy fall which must have played some part in Wober’s need to take such drastic action on Alexander Isak inside the box.
There was, in Firpo’s defence, the excellent underlapping run which drew the Leeds penalty, but his afternoon would be marred by the baffling height of his hands before Newcastle’s second penalty and his subsequent, justified, red card. This was nothing like the composure Allardyce wants to see from his team when they are up against it.
Another six points needed?
One point was better than many expected for Leeds and matters could have looked a lot more desperate if Nottingham Forest had held on at Stamford Bridge, but there is still a massive fight on to stay in the league. Four points look like a minimum requirement, but even six might be needed to keep Forest honest on that final day.
West Ham has always felt like the one under Allardyce. They were the one side in and around Leeds in the table, while their safe status and European distractions fed into the straw-clutching we all needed to believe Leeds have a chance of survival.
That capital trip remains the case, but we might just need to mull over Spurs’ beach status before that May 28 finale too. At the time of writing, Leicester do seem to be in some bother. The Foxes are second from bottom and still have to host unbeaten-in-eight Liverpool and visit Newcastle. It’s hard to see anything from those games before a very feasible final-day home win over West Ham.
That would have Dean Smith’s side on 33 points. Everton could get to 36 or even 38 points after an expected Manchester City loss and clashes with beach-bound Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bournemouth. Forest could be the key rival with Leeds fighting to avoid 18th place. Assuming title-chasing Arsenal take care of them next Saturday, it’s all down to their final-day visit to Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace.
Palace’s, and Allardyce's old mate's, desire to see their home fans off in style vs their own beach status could be pivotal for Leeds. A draw would take Forest to 35 points and below Leeds (assuming the Whites take four points) on goal difference. A win would push Steve Cooper’s side to 37 points and require a maximum return from Leeds in the last two to stay up on goal difference. It’s going to be so, so tight, but only if United take care of their own business.
They absolutely have to beat West Ham next Sunday.
READ NEXT:
Every word Sam Allardyce said on Leeds United's draw, Bamford, Robles, penalty calls, Koch
Leeds United confirm arrest as Eddie Howe opens up on Elland Road touchline incident
Luke Ayling's verdict on Leeds United survival prospects after Newcastle draw and Allardyce 'magic'
Junior Firpo labelled a 'liability' after Newcastle United performance for Leeds United
Rate the Leeds United players after battling 2-2 draw with Newcastle United
