Amidst tight security and high levels of anxiety among party leaders and candidates, counting of votes polled in the elections to the State Legislative Assembly will be taken up on May 13. Most of the results will be known by noon. The polling for 224 seats took place on May 10, and the voter turnout was 73.19%.
The elections witnessed a fierce contest between arch-rivals the BJP and the Congress, besides the Janata Dal (S).
Counting of votes will begin at 8 a.m. at 36 centres across Karnataka, and a clear picture on the outcome is expected to emerge by midday. The question is who will secure the magic figure of 113 seats, or will it be a fractured mandate yet again, like in the 2018 polls.
With several exit polls predicting a hung Assembly, the election results will be a watershed moment for all the three major parties. In this election, the BJP contested in all 224 constituencies, the Congress in 223, and the JD (S) in 209.
Southern citadel of BJP
If the BJP returns to power then it will break the jinx of no political party retaining power in the State since 1985, when the erstwhile Janata Party formed the government under Ramakrishna Hegde for a second consecutive term.
For the BJP, which has considered Karnataka as the gateway of the South, a victory will re-establish the sustained charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the well-crafted strategy of Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president J.P. Nadda to bring the party back to power, despite the sustained “40% commission sarkara” campaign against the Basavaraj Bommai government by the Congress. The local unit of the saffron party had largely built its poll campaign around Mr. Modi rather than local issues and the works taken up.
Key battle for Congress
On the other hand, a victory for the Congress would give a boost to its sagging morale, as the party has been witnessing poll defeats in States since 2014. The victory will also help to prove the leadership qualities of AICC president M. Mallikarjun Kharge, who hails from Karnataka, besides KPCC president D.K. Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah, who remain contenders for the Chief Minister’s post. It will also go to prove the local issues-based campaign strategy of the party.
A defeat will weaken the party’s claim for leadership of a pan-India anti-BJP alliance ahead of the 2024 general elections.
HDK’s move raises eyebrows
In the event of a hung House, the JD (S) would weigh several options before it to exploit the political advantage. It remains to be seen whether former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda-led JD (S) will emerge as a “kingmaker or king” by holding the key to government formation, as it had done in 2004 and 2018.
Meanwhile, Mr. Kumaraswamy’s trip to Singapore hours after polling set off speculations of post-poll negotiations.
If the JD (S) crosses the 30-seat mark, Mr. Kumaraswamy is expected to stake his claim for the post of Chief Minister, irrespective of who seeks his party’s support. In 2018, the then Congress leaders Ghulam Nabi Azad and Ahmed Patel struck a deal with the JD (S) and installed the JD (S)-Congress government, led by Mr Kumaraswamy, which lasted 14 months. Now, Mr. Azad has quit the Congress and Patel died in November 2020, and it remains to be seen which Congress leader will take the initiative in striking the deal in case of a hung Assembly.
In case the party secures less than 30 seats in the fractured mandate, the party might opt for a leader who would toe its line, like in 2004 when N. Dharam Singh was made Chief Minister.
The polls would decide the future of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, three former Chief Ministers (Mr. Siddaramaiah, Mr. Kumaraswamy, and Jagadish Shettar) and Mr. Shivakumar, besides several other prominent leaders.
In the 2018 Assembly polls, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats, followed by the Congress with 80, and JD (S) with 37 seats; the BSP got one seat and the Independents numbered two. The Congress secured a vote share of 38.04%, followed by the BJP with 36.22%, and the JD (S) with 18.36%.
