In 2023, the Jacksonville Jaguars crushed the freefalling Tennessee Titans’ playoff hopes in Week 18.
In 2024, the Titans returned the favor.
The Jaguars needed a win in their regular season finale to clinch the AFC South title and host a Wild Card game next week. All that stood in their way was a road game against a 5-11 division rival they’d beaten 34-14 earlier in the year — a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates thanks to Jacksonville’s early 27-0 lead.
That made the Jags a 3.5-point favorite on the road. They were searching for a path back to the postseason to reclaim the momentum created by last year’s dash to the Divisional Round. All they found was disappointment in a 28-20 loss that saw Jacksonville run screaming from comeback opportunities while closing out their season with a thud.
So how did the Titans play spoiler? It boils down to five factors.
1
The Jaguars let Derrick Henry, in the midst of his worst season as a pro, destroy them
Derrick Henry wasn’t bad in 2023, he just wasn’t DERRICK HENRY. And as a pending free agent, he was staring down the end of a legendary eight-year run with the Titans.
So he gave Tennessee something to remember him by.
If this is his last game in Nashville, Derrick Henry is giving us one to remember (also Skoronski makes an AWESOME block to spring this play) pic.twitter.com/mwzf0UNmaS
— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) January 7, 2024
Henry was a monster, a jackhammer at the line still capable of breaking into space and ripping off long, demoralizing runs. He finished his day with 153 yards on 19 carries and the touchdown above. A good chunk of those yards came on a single third quarter handoff that helped push the Titans’ lead to 28-13.
KING ON THE LOOSE
📺: Watch #JAXvsTEN on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/huAz2Ym3Ed
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 7, 2024
Jacksonville’s run defense had allowed just 4.0 yards per carry in 2023 — ninth-best in the NFL and a smidge higher than Henry’s career-low 3.9. The Jags’ -0.091 expected points added (EPA) per opponent’s run play ranked just 17th. But on Sunday they gave up 6.7 yards per carry and 0.26 EPA per rush, both of which would be league-worst numbers.
This wasn’t solely a Henry production.
2
The Jaguars let Tyjae Spears, a rookie, have one of the best games of his budding NFL career
Spears only took three handoffs, but he turned that into 25 yards and a touchdown. He had three targets in the passing game and translated that into 41 yards and another touchdown, paving the way for the first multiple score game of his career.
Tyjae Spears goes 28 yards for the @Titans TD!
📺: #JAXvsTEN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/mJoCKcR788— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
Spears and Henry shared the same soul-crushing ability. They were able to run into congestion and what looked like a surefire stop and emerge, unscathed, yards and yards down the field with either a big gain or a touchdown. This was disheartening from a defense that had been good enough throughout 2023. With the season on the line, they left just enough space for good running backs to turn cracks into craters. Tennessee was happy to oblige.
3
Trevor Lawrence leaned into his best AND worst instincts, all on the same day
2023 will ultimately go down as a disappointment for the former first overall draft pick. Lawrence was a borderline top-10 quarterback through the first dozen weeks of the season, but late injuries sapped his effectiveness and forced him out of the lineup in Week 17.
He returned in Nashville and was a roller coaster unto himself. He threw for 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns without Christian Kirk in the lineup. His deep ball to Calvin Ridley opened up an early 10-7 lead and suggested the Jaguars would handle their business.
Lawd have mercy 😍@Trevorlawrencee | @CalvinRidley1 pic.twitter.com/MqIa0E2gvt
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) January 7, 2024
The Jaguars did not. Lawrence was sloppy throughout the game, not just missing open windows, but missing them high to put the ball in harm’s way.
SMB INT!
📺: Watch #JAXvsTEN on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/1NXYQpJHw9
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 7, 2024
With the game on the line trailing late, Lawrence had the chance to link up with Ridley again after Tennessee inexplicably let him slide behind its safeties in a do-or-die situation. And while this throw isn’t an easy one to make, it’s something Lawrence needs to do if he’s ever going to join the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks:
the Titans are leading by 8 with 2 minutes to play and their safeties have decided it's totally cool to let Calvin Ridley run free behind them pic.twitter.com/nvRGfMlQMa
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 7, 2024
There was plenty of room to float that ball, even off Lawrence’s back foot as pressure closed in. And while the young quarterback did a good job putting it in a place where *only* his guy could get it, it landed just outside Ridley’s catch radius. That’s a tough pill to swallow, but it’s understandable.
This throw, however, on what turned out to be the Jags’ final offensive snap of 2023, was not.
the final offensive snap of the Jaguars 2023 season pic.twitter.com/PQZbOjVhEg
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 7, 2024
Woof. Lawrence finished his day with a pedestrian 8.5 passer rating and 0.3 EPA — fewer than Ryan Tannehill’s 1.6 on the opposite sideline.
4
The Jaguars got roasted by Tennessee's one-man receiving corps
How’d Tannehill, approaching the twilight of his career, get the better of Lawrence? He knew where his bread was buttered, sending nearly 40 percent of his throws to the one man in the lineup he could trust to catch them.
Look ma, one hand @DeAndreHopkins
📺: Watch #JAXvsTEN on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/27VTmY3Qbl
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 7, 2024
DeAndre Hopkins caught seven of his 10 targets. While that only manifested into 46 yards, they were important ones. He was a key piece of two of the Titans’ first three scoring drives and the capper to their fourth:
Seventh TD of the season for @DeAndreHopkins!
📺: Watch #JAXvsTEN on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/7nZhZ8BfaX
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 7, 2024
None of this should have surprised the Jaguars. Hopkins came into Week 18 with 53 more targets and 519 more receiving yards than anyone else in the Titans’ lineup. He had 82 more targets than the team’s next-closest wide receiver, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. But Jacksonville still opted for zone coverage on a dangerous veteran in key moments, hoping Tannehill wouldn’t be able to exploit the moments between one defender passing him off to the next assignment.
This worked sometimes!
.@andrecisco7 with the clutch takeaway!#JAXvsTEN on CBS pic.twitter.com/s4hpoRqXsJ
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) January 7, 2024
But not enough, and Tennessee got just enough aerial support to hold on for the win. In part because…
5
Jacksonville's fourth down offense was ... whew
The Jaguars went for it on:
- fourth and seven at the Tennessee 33-yard line
- fourth-and-goal at the Tennessee one-yard line
- fourth-and-two at their own 33
They converted none of these.
LAWRENCE DIDN’T GET IT HOLY COCONUT BALLS pic.twitter.com/0UYToc4vMI
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) January 7, 2024
That sneak came after a too-clever roll-out-and-throw-away on third-and-goal from the one that failed, creating a predictable call against a defensive front that played well all game and limited the Jaguars to only 3.6 yards per carry. It was still better than the fourth-and-six call where the only two open targets were each short of the line to gain. There, Zay Jones was easily stopped for a turnover on downs.
This was a swirling storm of uninspired calls and botched execution on gotta-have-it plays. It cost the Jags, at the very least, a third quarter field goal and a fourth quarter touchdown. And in an eight-point loss, that’s all it took to end their season.
