When it emerged back in April that Liverpool were to abandon their long pursuit of Jude Bellingham it was met with understandable anger and frustration.
Given some lean spending summers under Fenway Sports Group in comparison to some of their main rivals, Reds fans had long held on to the notion that the frugal spending was designed to snare a transformational talent that could dominate the Liverpool midfield for a decade.
Bellingham, still only 19, is expected to be a world class operator for years to come, and his advanced development and age, combined with the extensive experience he has obtained in domestic, European and international competitions, saw him tick plenty of boxes for the Reds, in need of invigorating an ageing side.
But in April, faced with competition from Bellingham’s expected destination, Real Madrid, the potential size of the deal at a time when it was becoming glaringly apparent that Liverpool were set to miss out on the lucrative Champions League for next season, the Reds decided to move on.
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None of the the players Liverpool could switch their attention to would match what they would get with Bellingham, at least in terms of profile, but with a price tag that threatened to push above £130m, and Borussia Dortmund in no mood to soften on their stance, such an outlay would have impacted the Reds ability to address other key areas, and addressing the collective was something that was of paramount importance.
Liverpool are expected to land Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Alexis Mac Allister in the coming days, the 24-year-old set to come in at around £45m with add ons, a snip in the modern market. That is £45m for a player with almost 100 Premier League appearances, with time on his side and who won the World Cup with Argentina in December, playing a key role along the way. It is the kind of deal that Liverpool had been so good at securing in seasons past.
There are likely to be inevitable shouts of it being down to penny pinching by owners FSG. This is, however, a business, and when you run a sports team like a business you have to find ways to get around the simple tactic of paying more than the next guy.
FSG supremo and Liverpool principal owner John W Henry features in the 2011 film 'Moneyball', a movie about the Oakland Athletics baseball team and how its general manager Billy Beane used statistical analysis to get marginal gains in the early 2000s to earn results against teams with far higher payrolls.
Henry, in that film, is portrayed by actor Arliss Howard and in one of the film’s scenes attempts to lure Beane to the Boston Red Sox so that he can implement his brand of data-driven baseball in Massachusetts. Beane declines, but Henry remained keen on the whole idea of ‘moneyball’ as a technique.
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In one of the film’s most memorable scenes Beane, played by Hollywood superstar Brad Pitt, is sitting down discussing targets ahead of the new season with his scouts. They are trying to fathom out how to replace their outgoing star Jason Giambi, recently departed for a bigger deal with the New York Yankees.
“Guys, you're still trying to replace Giambi,” he tells his recruitment team. “I told you we can't do it, and we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him.”
It’s important to stress here that Liverpool in 2023 are not the Oakland Athletics of the early 2000s. Liverpool is a global powerhouse, whose brand has touch points all over the world, whose success has created legions of fans in the hundreds of millions and a business that has the second biggest payroll in the Premier League (according to 2021/22 accounts) and a value that has risen from £300m to £4bn in 13 years. The two are not the same.
They do, however, share a similar problem. Liverpool operates in a sustainable fashion and keeping pace with the spending power of Manchester City just isn’t feasible, nor is the idea of significant debt being racked up in the pursuit of transfers that may or may not work out, such as has been seen at Chelsea.
The valuations of players can differ greatly depending on what you read. How much Borussia Dortmund want for Jude Bellingham and how much Real Madrid are willing to pay remain known to the parties involved and that’s about it.
Analysts at the CIES Football Observatory in Switzerland use statistical analysis and a number of metrics to determine the market value of a player, from age, to form, to level of competition, to the length left on their current contract. CIES released its latest value rankings list on Tuesday, with Manchester City’s Erling Haaland sitting at the summit with a calculated market value of €245.1m (£211m). In fourth spot on that list was Bellingham with a market value of €190.2m (£164.7m). That is a sum that would eat up much of the transfer kitty that Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp has at his disposal, and while solving the need for a world class talent to come in, does it solve the other requirements, especially given that several first team players have departed the club and more than one or two reinforcements are needed?
The Mac Allister fee is set to be around £45m, but to be consistent across the board, to use the CIES valuation the Argentinian comes in at €60m (£51.7m). Liverpool are also targeting the midfield duo of Khepren Thuram from Nice and Manu Kone from Borussia Monchengladbach, with the former having a value of €30m (£25.8m) and the latter €60m (£51.7m) according to CIES. Like Mac Allister, both Thuram and Kone fit the age profile, with both just 22. Add to that another linked addition, Celta Vigo’s 21-year-old Spanish whiz Gabri Veiga, valued at €15m (£12.9m) by CIES, and you can see that given the lack of infinite spending power the addition of three players for the price of one makes sense, especially when considering that the Reds will likely need to dip into the market for other additions across the backline.
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The optics on pulling away from a Bellingham deal were not great. For fans, at a time when the team was struggling for form and there was much uncertainty floating around related to the departures behind the scenes, the search for a new sporting director and the continued rumbling on of the investment search, it was seen as a damning statement that they couldn’t compete for the heaviest hitters.
The proof will be how this transfer window pans out and what kind of business the Reds do get done, but given the size of the rebuild the need to be smart with money and to get back to the kind of recruitment that has served them so well in the past is key.
Liverpool will continue to spend big on wages, a trend that has been underpinned by the success on the pitch and the growth of the business. But spending wisely will remain paramount, and with FSG president and Klopp’s closest ally among the FSG leadership team, Mike Gordon, significantly involved once more there is a sense that a concerted effort is being made to address the deficiencies.
FSG is one of sports most successful ownership organisations. That has been proven over time. They are also strong-minded business folk, and while questions about commitment and the willingness to spend to achieve success may arrive often, the company needs Liverpool, as it does with all its teams, to be a success on the field to provide leverage for what can be done off it. The same blueprint that has been applied to all of its sporting investments is continuing to be applied this summer, albeit with more to spend given the size of the rebuild task ahead. It is a necessity, though, and Klopp will know he needs more than one piece to complete his jigsaw and invigorate a team that had been in decline.
A good summer will arrive from all issues being addressed, not just one.
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