MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 314 main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes for the vacant featherweight championship.
Alexander Volkanovski UFC 314 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 26-5 MMA, 13-4 UFC
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 36 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Ilia Topuria (Feb. 17, 2024)
- Camp: Freestyle Fighting Gym/Bangtao Muay Thai (Australia)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 13 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent feints and footwork
+ Accurate shot selection and counters
^ Educated lead hand and hard leg kicks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Good ground striking from topside
Diego Lopes UFC 314 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 27-6 MMA, 6-1 UFC
- Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 72.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Brian Ortega (Sept. 14, 2024)
- Camp: Brazilian Warriors/Legacy MMA (Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 12 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Accurate left hook and uppercut returns
+ Hard calf kicks
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Dynamic submission game
+ Dangerous off of back
^ Attacks from high-to-low
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes point of interest: Featherweight fireworks
Not one to say no to a scrap, Lopes has proven that he is down to step up in multiple ways.
Improving his striking skills in recent years, Lopes shows some natural pop in his punches and kicks. Doing a bit better at staying over his feet, Lopes has made measurable strides since his early days of being a jiu-jitsu brawler.
Although Lopes’ aggressive instincts are still clearly intact, the 30-year-old Brazilian displays some solid straight punches that serve him well when coming forward and countering kicks. Whenever matched with a fellow orthodox opposition, Lopes will unleash crashing calf kicks often set up by his underrated lead hand.
Lopes can also strike potently off of collar ties, but will need to be careful when closing in on Volkanovski.
An acclaimed wrestler-turned-rugby player, Volkanovski initially stepped onto the scene as a come-forward slugger who typically approached the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut from his compact stance. A natural athlete, Volkanovski shows little issue when having to crash distance with his patent kicks and crosses, strikes that have been typically set up off of prodding jabs.
However, since incorporating the influences of Brad Riddell and his sister gym City Kickboxing, Volkanovski has sharpened his feints, footwork, and overall striking fundamentals, measuring and moving in space more smoothly and on balance than before. The 36-year-old Australian will now change up his combination approach, doing things like leading with stance-debasing kicks and finishing off combinations with a long lead hand.
Volkanovski also has taken some of the feinting swagger from his stablemates, showing or throwing away certain shots to land others with a bigger picture in mind.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering that both men come from grappling bases, no one should be shocked if this featherweight party touches the floor at some point.
Grappling since the age of 5, Lopes is a lifelong martial artist who moves on the floor like second nature.
An absolute nightmare in transitions, Lopes flows through the position and submission index faster than any bogus AI program could replicate. Whether combining armbar and triangle threats or snatching up legs on an exit, Lopes is great about keeping a high-to-low theme to his attacks.
In more recent stretches of his career, Lopes appears to have made a real effort to shore up his wrestling, both defensively and offensively.
Not only does Lopes have things like clinch trips or reactive shots in his back pocket, but the Brazilian has also shown an upgraded ability to defend and dictate action from the clinch. Still, I’ll be curious to see how Lopes’ entries stack up against Volkanovski (should he elect to get offensive in that department).
Since reining in his aggression and fighting smarter, Volkanovski appears to be even harder to meaningfully take down and control due to his overall awareness of positioning – particularly against the fence.
Alex Volkanovski’s counter-grappling notes—love that he uses my favorite MMA getup: half guard to single-leg getups
Doesn’t reap the leg for extra leverage but nails the crucial detail of LOW underhooks BELOW the ass, as this helps thwart front-choke counters/allows re-wrestling pic.twitter.com/emQOSraVXw
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
Even when taken down, Volkanovski displays solid head positioning and smart details like a low underhook (limiting front-choke counters) when looking to execute things like half-guard getups.
Even when taken down by Chad Mendes and rear-mounted, Volkanovski’s deliberate reach across/framing creates the illusion of further back exposure/control (hence opening up opps to slide back into half-guard) as the basic theme/muscle memory from above also gets the job done here: pic.twitter.com/NehnXtPItc
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
Offensively, Volkanovski seems to stay consistent with said trends, appearing to prefer more efficient options like inside trips from the clinch as opposed to the traditional double and single-legs against the fence that he used to favor. And when Volkanovski can establish top position, he embraces his honey badger-like sensibilities by staking claims to positions through punishing strikes and rides.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes odds
The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the former champion, listing Volkanovski -132 and Lopes +104 via FanDuel.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes prediction, pick
Between the legitimate allure of Lopes and the looming statistic of fighters failing to win titles past 35 in the lighter weight classes, it’s no surprise to see MMA bettors backing the Brazilian at the betting window.
Not only do MMA gamblers tend to favor younger athletes, but they also value measurements like height more than a woman in her early 20s on Tinder does.
I mean, this card is jam-packed with more proven products that are shorter and older facing off against younger, larger opportunists – and in every fight public money is pouring in on the lesser-proven products.
Now, the sad thing is that this is part and parcel with the fight game as people who blindly bet against aging fighters seemingly make out okay, more often than not (circle of life and all). Nevertheless, there are still things that are too difficult to look past.
Aside from it seemingly being easy for people to forget that Volkanovski was considered the top pound-for-pound fighter not too long ago, he has also proven himself in latter rounds with his ability to both adjust and push the pace. Lopes, on the other hand, has shown to flag in three-round affairs if he’s unable to find a finish.
Don’t get me wrong: Lopes is a proven finisher who has the tools to hurt Volkanovski.
Whether Lopes is launching hard calf kicks to disrupt Volkanovski’s stance or is trying to replicate the uppercut success that Max Holloway found in his series with the Australian, he could club and sub his way to a UFC championship.
The potential problem, however, is that Lopes’ hardwiring to return with power could start to hit a hard point of diminishing returns against a fighter like Volkanovski if he’s not able to find a finish. And if Volkanovski can dictate jab and leg-kick traffic like I suspect he can, then don’t be surprised to see his right hand (from both stances) start to find its home with regularity given Lopes’ common culprits.
I don’t doubt Lopes’ skills or the fact that he’ll likely be on the right side of some big moments in this fight. But if he can’t find a finish by the 7-8 minute mark, then I believe his on-paper chances at success will start to drastically diminish.
As per usual, I’ll be officially siding with the more proven product to survive the early scares and pull away down the stretch by reminding the masses of his vicious ground-and-pound game.
The pick is Volkanovski to force a stoppage by strikes in Round 4.
Prediction: Volkanovski inside the distance
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes start time, where to watch
As the main event, Volkanovski and Lopes are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 314.
