MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 313 main event title fight between light heavyweight champion Alex Pereria and challenger Magomed Ankalaev.
Alex Pereira UFC 313 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 12-2 MMA, 9-1 UFC
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 37 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: TKO win over Khalil Rountree (Oct. 5, 2024)
- Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Garage (Danbury, Conn.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC light heavyweight champion
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ 5x Glory middleweight and light heavyweight titles
+ Pro kickboxing record: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)
+ Brazilian jiiu-jitsu black belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
^ Superb proprioception and accuracy
+ Devastating left hook and right cross
^ Times splits and counters well
+ Dangerous knees and leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations
+ Serviceable grappling game
+/-2-0 against dedicated UFC-level southpaws
Magomed Ankalaev UFC 313 preview
Staple info:
- 19-1-1 MMA, 10-1-1 UFC
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 75″
- Last fight: Decision win over Aleksandar Rakic (Oct. 26, 2024)
- Camp: Fight Club Akhmat (Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ Grego-Roman wrestling champion of Dagestan
+ 11 KO victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate crosses and hooks
+ Hard left kicks
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Serviceable trips and takedowns
+ Good positional grappler
^ Heavy ground-and-pound
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
Carrying a knack for countering, Ankalaev wields a lot of the offense that southpaws should never leave home without. Whether Ankalaev lands counter crosses or deceptive check-right hooks, the 32-year-old is good at keeping his eyes open in exchanges.
Ankalaev also does well at using uppercuts and front kicks to check dips and level changes, which, in turn, score to the body.
Although Ankalaev seems to have a good beat on spinning attacks (likely to do the strong Wushu Sanda presence in Makhachkala), he’s shown susceptibility to leg kicks and kick counters in his UFC career. He has also shown instances of improved checks and kick defense throughout this same stretch, his legs will likely still be the target for the sitting champion.
Many will immediately point to the counter left hook, but it is ultimately the proprioception of Pereira that makes him so accurate and dangerous in all that he does.
Whether he’s hitting his opposition with surprising spin kicks or splitting right hands inside of the danger zone, Pereira demonstrates a preternatural instinct to find and hit targets in motion. This could also be why his defensive layers can seem lackadaisical at times, but the Brazilian does a decent job of playing off his lowered guard and purposefully slow prods in order to invite opponents into awkwardly angled counters.
When Pereira is the one pushing opponents on the back foot and towards a barrier, he wields one of the more understated jabs in MMA.
Already submitted my #UFC287 breakdown for this week, but couldn’t help throw this video together after hearing @TeddyAtlasReal talk about the jabbing dynamic between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya.
Tacked on George Foreman-Gullick to help illustrate his Pereira comparisons: pic.twitter.com/Clws9Re94N
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 4, 2023
Pereira’s kicks, though improved (particularly when being used for returns), also come with an awkward kicking gate in tow, almost as if he’s trying to stay planted for counter-hook attachments at all times.
When facing southpaws, Pereira will still target his opposition’s lead leg, but isn’t beyond attacking the rear extremity a la Sittichai Sangkhachot. Pereira will still utilize his lead hand effectively against lefties, showing a knack for finding a southpaw’s blindspot with either left hooks or crafty kicks.
Alex Pereira, who faces Jamahal Hill at #UFC300, has a limited sample against southpaws in both kickboxing & MMA.
Poatan will still jab the head & body as well as attack both legs in the open stance (targeting the rear Sittichai style), but leans more on countering traps in MMA: pic.twitter.com/XNfT5bUdLd
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 11, 2024
Nevertheless, Pereira is not beyond eating classic southpaw kicks and counters, so he’ll need to respect what’s coming back at him on the feet.
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Given where the challenger holds an on-paper edge, no one should be shocked if this party touches the floor on Saturday.
Although Ankalaev has shown that he can competently change levels for an occasional takedown, the Stip Miocic doppelganger seems to prefer the clinch as his comfort zone.
A Greco-Roman champion wrestler of Dagestan, Ankalaev appears to apply himself naturally in clinch space, which could come in handy this weekend. Whether Ankalaev is accompanying his underhooks with foot play for potential takedowns or is striking with hard shots off the break, he doesn’t seem to be short on ideas in said space.
That said, Ankalaev can’t afford to get lackadaisical or underestimate Periera in closed quarters.
Despite the underhook being a bit vacant from Pereira’s repertoire in the past, the champion has shown to use it in conjunction with his other tools in more recent fights. Pereira already works well off of collar ties and overhooks, so it’s nice to see him adding other tactics like underhooks and wrist controls as his MMA career moves on.
We haven’t had to see much of Pereira’s jiu-jitsu in the octagon, but the Brazilian has clearly been focusing on everything from his submission defense to his getups under the care of Glover Teixeira. When “Poatan” ends up on top, his hands of stone translate seamlessly to the ground-striking aspect of MMA.
Nevertheless, it’s still hard not to give an edge to Ankalaev in grappling exchanges.
Say what you will about Greco-Roman wrestling, but Ankalaev has some real strength and a genuine ability to stymie clinch action that can quietly wear on his counterparts. Ankalaev also seems to have some sambo and freestyle influence in his wrestling, subtly interplaying the legwork that is not allowed in the Greco style.
Even when put on his back, Ankalaev appears incredibly calm and comfortable while problem solving, smartly favoring re-wrestling into single-leg variations in order to reverse fortunes. Once on top, Ankalaev is not afraid to go to pound town, as he clearly prefers position over submission.
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening this line a bit wider in the champion’s favor, money has come trickling in on the challenger, listing Pereira -120 and Ankalaev -106 via FanDuel.
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev prediction, pick
Considering that many, including myself, have had high hopes and expectations for Ankalaev since he stepped onto the UFC scene, I can’t say that I’m surprised to see people back him at the betting window.
Not only does Ankalaev have the on-paper edge on the floor, but the Russian’s southpaw striking – that quietly holds strong as a hallmark of his game – could be a trickier puzzle to solve than past Poatan opponents were.
Not only is Ankalaev a southpaw who jabs and works the body, but the looming threat of a potential takedown could help level the striking playing fields by freezing Pereira up (something we saw in brief stanzas during the current champ’s fight with Jan Blachowicz).
Nevertheless, Ankalaev will still need to make some decent hay regardless of which route he takes if he aims to get ahead of Pereira on the cards.
Pereira may have some strong countering instincts akin to Ankalaev, but the Brazilian bomber also knows when to get on his jab and start getting on the gas.
In Ankalaev’s defense, he’s shown solid awareness when it comes to jabs and straight punches. That said, his past susceptibility to kicks will loom large anytime he’s at range with Pereira.
For this reason, it’s easy to assume that we’ll see Ankalaev keep his recent trend of improved striking pressure, mixed in with more takedowns. But given some of the perplexing performances that Ankalaev has put in the bank, I have a hard time trusting him to fight the right fight, in general.
Whether we’re talking about Ankalaev’s last-minute lapses in focus opposite Paul Craig or waiting until Jan Blachowicz kicked out both of his legs before pressing his takedown advantage, the Dagestani doppelganger of Stipe Miocic has delivered some frustrating results for his fans.
Even if Ankalaev can ground Pereira, I suspect that he’ll largely score via stalemate positions, at best (meaning that the challenger will need at least 3 strong rounds of wrestling to either win on the scorecards or seriously wear down the champion).
The potential problem with that, however, is that not only has Pereira improved his takedown defense from the clinch – but the sitting champ has also shown excellent cardio and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to boot.
A Pereira knockout is always on the table, but I suspect we get a drawn-out affair given both fighters’ propensity to counter and the stylistic grappling threats at play. It’s probably not going to be pretty, but this is probably going to be a contentious decision that is decided between Anakalaev’s bodywork and control time vs. Pereira’s powerful leg kicks and punches.
If Pereira doesn’t knock Ankalaev out with a high kick or splitting right hand, then I believe that the judges will still reward Poatan’s perceived impact over the consistent bodywork of Anakalaev (something that MMA judges consistently underrate).
Prediction: Pereira by decision
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev start time, where to watch
As the main event, Pereira and Ankalaev are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:10 a.m. ET. The fight airs via ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 313.
