Lose nine times out of 10, and many would give up. But for Alex de Minaur against world No 1 Jannik Sinner, that ratio would be just fine with him. The world No 8 hasn’t beaten the Italian in nine meetings going back to their first encounter in 2019 (apart from a scheduling-related walkover in 2023).
It is no Novak Djokovic-Gael Monfils, which reached 20-0 in favour of the Serb in Brisbane a few weeks ago, but De Minaur’s record against Sinner is one of the most one-sided among current players on tour.
As the pair prepare to meet for the 10th time in the Australian Open quarter-final on Wednesday night, De Minaur was owning those nine defeats. “Ultimately Jannik is a hell of a player,” he said. “It’s not really about being a bad matchup, it’s that he’s a pretty good player, right? So he’s a bad matchup for a lot of players out there on tour.”
But De Minaur believes he has a chance. In the final in Rotterdam last year, he was only just shaded by the newly minted Australian Open champion in two tight sets. The underdog broke Sinner twice, and the match swung on a 23-minute game that De Minaur narrowly failed to hold.
“That one was probably, out of the last matches we have played, the only one that I can really take a lot out of because I was physically at 100%, and I think that was quite a good battle with opportunities here and there,” De Minaur said. “And, hey, we’ve never played quarter-finals of a slam, so that’s a new one.”
The Australian has looked in outstanding physical condition throughout his matches at Melbourne Park. Although he was tested on the court in the third and fourth rounds, his stamina helped guide him to victory.
Sinner, on the other hand, struggled on Monday against Holger Rune. At one stage his hands were shaking while he was seated at the change in ends.
“I think we saw that I was not feeling well, especially in that moment, I was a bit dizzy at times,” Sinner said. “I don’t want to go in details, no? I think it was then also with the pressure and everything, it was not easy. The sun came out that point. It was more humid.”
Sinner chose not to practise before the clash against Rune and required what he described as “some small medication” to help him through the match. The weather is scheduled to be cool on Wednesday evening, which may help Sinner put his medical concerns behind him.
The defending champion is also aware that while he has a good record against De Minaur, the past alone won’t carry him to the semi-finals. “Every match is different,” he said. “Playing against him here in Australia, it’s for sure different.”
Much has been made of the improvements in De Minaur’s serve, and Djokovic described it as a “weapon” earlier in the tournament. The Australian has added approximately 15km/h to both his first and second serves in the past three years.
“Ultimately I do have that extra pop on my serve where I can get that 215 [km/h], but it doesn’t mean I’ve got to use it all the time,” De Minaur said. “It’s about using that variety and setting up the next shot and keeping your opponents guessing whether you’re going to go for the big one down the T or you’re going to take a little bit of pace off and go for the short slider, go somewhere in the body, just keep that variety going.”
But De Minaur has struggled with a low first serve percentage in Melbourne. In the past two rounds it has dipped below 50%. “In the last couple of matches those serves just decided to go away on a little vacay [vacation], deserted me for a little while,” he said, admitting those numbers were below his expectations. “I’m sure my serve will come back.”
The local hope – the first Australian men’s quarter-finalist since Nick Kyrgios in 2015 – has highlighted throughout the tournament he wants to perform here more than anywhere else. Up until his victory on Monday, he had lost in the round of 16 in Melbourne in three straight years.
Having upended history once already this week, now De Minaur wants to do the same against a man – based on history alone – who is his nemesis. “You’ve got to play the match on face value and forget about everything that’s happened in the past.”
