Winning in fantasy baseball comes from a successful draft plan, lineup management, and many winning free-agent pickups. At the same time, it is vital to find the breakout players to help push your team over the finish line.
The goal is to identify a hitter who will outperform his draft position by a wide margin. For example, if I target a player from the eighth to the 10th round in the current draft season, he must deliver first or second-round value to be considered a difference-maker. Any other player will have a range of improvements based on their draft value.
Fantasy baseball rankings: Hitters | Pitchers
The top four breakout players last year by SIscore were Cedric Mullens (6.36 – 10th), Salvador Perez (5.56 – 19th), Tyler O’Neill (4.74 – 24th), and Austin Riley (4.67 – 25th).
Mullins was a late-round selection in 15-team formats while also being found on the waiver wire in many leagues. His combination of speed and power was a significant win for anyone rostering him in 2021.
Perez had an incredible season for any position, but his output as a catcher ranked with the best in baseball history. As a result, he has an ADP of 34 in 2022 in the high-stakes market, 40 spots lower than his price point last year (ADP – 74).
O’Neill has a breakthrough season in home runs (34) while upping his production in stolen bases (15) and posting a better than expected batting average (.286), considering his high total in strikeouts. His ADP (521) in the NFBC also put him in the free-agent pool in most formats. O’Neill even left some stats on the table due to missing 24 games.
Riley had the look of a potential breakout player last year based on his rookie success in 2019 (18 home runs and 49 RBI over 274 at-bats) when added to his 2021 ADP (208) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship.
Last year my breakout player was C Dalton Varsho. Unfortunately, he failed to meet my expectations due to a lack of playing time over the first half of the season. Nevertheless, his stats (.290/32/10/31/5 over 200 at-bats) projected over 500 at-bats came to 80 runs, 25 home runs, 78 RBI, and 13 steals would have exceeded my 2021 preseason projections (.270 with 77 runs, 18 home runs, 49 RBI, and 20 steals over 526 at-bats). Sometimes fantasy teams get beat by the manager.
Potential breakout hitters
Mariners OF Jarred Kelenic: Kelenic has the tools to be a five-category stud once he gets his major league approach under control. I expect him to push to the top of the Mariners’ batting order, leading to an edge in runs. His ADP (139) in the NFBC in early March is well below where Kelenic will be drafted in 2023.
Pirates 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes: Last year I didn't have any interest in Hayes after his hot September in 2020. He hits the ball hard while lacking the loft to pop in home runs. His speed from the third base position will be an edge, but Hayes has a wide range in his potential power and batting average. I sense he is another year away from being a foundation piece to a fantasy team.
Cardinals OF Dylan Carlson: Carlson flashed early in 2021 (.281/17/3/13 in April), with his best production in power coming in September (5/17 over 99 at-bats). However, he fell short of expectations in steals (2) compared to his minor league career (38 stolen bases over 1,478 at-bats). His ADP (188) in the NFBC is a buying opportunity. He looks to be a year ahead of Ke’Bryan Hayes, so I expect him to push up the rankings in 2022.
Dodgers 2B Gavin Lux: Lux doesn't have the tells on his major league resume that a fantasy manager is looking to have a breakout season. Instead, he has questions about his bat and potential opportunity against lefties. In addition, the lockout has left the fantasy world wondering if the Dodgers will sign another free agent bat. Lux also needs to add more loft to his swing to become a more productive power hitter. His minor league resume says he is coming with a high ceiling. Only a bet on the come until some Dodgers finalize their major league roster in March.
Nationals OF Victor Robles: With no information about Robles over the winter, fantasy managers have parked him well down in the ranking (ADP – 456) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championships. As a result, he barely makes some 15-team benches in the high-stakes market. Robles ranks poorly in hard-hit rate, but he does have difference-maker speed. I’ve heard multiple people ask who is this year’s Cedric Mullins. I can tell you this: it isn’t Bradley Zimmer. Robles fits the profile while offering pedigree and a free price point.
2022 breakout bitter: Phillies 3B Alec Bohm
To key-in on a single option, my breakout hitter of the year is 3B Alec Bohm. Last year he had a sexier feel (ADP – 104) after an excellent 160 at-bats with the Phillies in 2020 (.338 with 24 runs, four home runs, 23 RBI, and one steal). Unfortunately, Bohm lost his way in 2021, leading to a demotion to AAA, where his bat continued to have a dull feel.
This year Bohm ranks 23rd at third base based on the ADPs (293) in the NFBC in March. The highest anyone has drafted him over the past two weeks is pick 249.
In 2019 over three levels (A, A+, and AA) of minor league baseball, Bohm hit .305 with 76 runs, 21 home runs, 80 RBI, and six stolen bases over 476 at-bats. His failure last year could have been his lack of experience at AAA (none before 2021 – he hit .271 over 59 at-bats last year with eight runs, one home run, six RBI, and three steals).
Bohm hit .317 over 635 at-bats at college with 121 runs, 33 home runs, 125 RBI, and 14 stolen bases while showing a promising approach (walk rate – 10.7 and strikeout rate – 11.6).
His struggles with power in Philly in 2021 came from a ground ball swing path (52.9) that should help his batting average when paired with his hard-hit rate (49.5 – 28th). In addition, Bohm ranked poorly in his barrel rate (6.6 – 201st) and launch angle (5.6 – 290th).
Overall, Bohn comes off the board as the 174th hitter this draft season. In the first run of my projections, I have him on a path to hit .260 with 72 runs, 15 home runs, 80 RBI, and seven steals, which would only mean I value him as a 16th round selection in 15-team formats. The rub with Bohm’s projections is that I have to use his previous major league data for his swing path and home run rate to give a fair evaluation. However, my personal belief is that he’ll push to second in the batting order, leading to a .280/100/20/80/7 season. Bohm could have a massive jump in power with a better swing path.
This draft season, I will target Bohm in drafts if I miss the top-tier options.
