Record-breaking wildfires have charred more than a million hectares of land in Alberta, pushing tens of thousands from their homes and choking the skies in a thick haze of smoke.
But on the zigzagging campaign trail of the province’s general election, neither party leader has confronted the realities of climate change and how it will likely dramatically reshape life in the Canadian prairies.
Instead, they’ve spent weeks sparring over taxation, health care – and one candidate’s deeply offensive remarks about transgender children.
By all accounts, Alberta’s election on Monday is going to be a political nail-biter, a bitterly contested campaign filled with fears of party mutiny, allegations of judicial interference and an unprecedented political comeback.
But for all the excitement of the race, political scientists are baffled that leaders have repeatedly shied away from confronting the realities of global heating.
“All you need to do is go outside to see what climate change is like and what the effects are, with people fleeing their homes from wildfires,” said Feodor Snagovsky, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta. “The fact that we haven’t talked about it at all during this election cycle is simply flabbergasting. It’s incongruous with reality.”
The province has some of the most abundant oil reserves in the world, the vast majority of which are locked up in bituminous sands. For decades, Alberta’s prosperity has been tied to the vast oil sands mining operations, contributing billions to provincial revenues.
But Snagovsky believes voters in the province already recognize that the world is moving away from fossil fuels.
“Still, it’s going to take some time for people to really reconcile that. It’s difficult to imagine living in a future that doesn’t include the oil and gas industries,” he said, adding that political leaders need to have “adult conversations” with voters about a post oil and gas world.
The tight nature of the race has meant both parties have been silent on the relationship between climate change and the oil and gas industry in the region, despite a recent paper explicitly linking the two.
Instead, incumbent premier Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party (UCP) who has spent months casting herself as Ottawa’s greatest foe, has focused her campaign on the mounting affordability crisis, and pledged to renew her fight against carbon taxes, which she argues hurt ordinary Albertans.
But the UCP, the result of an uneasy pact between fiscal conservatives and a hard-right faction, has struggled to focus on economic messaging amid a flood of controversies.
Smith, who took power after her predecessor Jason Kenney abruptly resigned, was the subject of a damning report by Alberta’s ethics commissioner, which found she broke the province’s Conflicts of Interest Act when she spoke with a homophobic street preacher facing criminal charges, and warned that her actions represented a “threat to democracy”.
That warning came after audio leaked of UCP legislative assembly candidate Jennifer Johnson comparing transgender school students to feces in cookie dough.
Johnson apologized and Smith called the analogy “vile”, warning Johnson would not sit in the UCP caucus if she wins. Smith then walked back that idea, suggesting Johnson could join the caucus if she could “redeem” herself, but was then forced to once again say Johnson wouldn’t be welcomed back.
The close race marks a departure from decades of rule by successive conservative governments and speaks to the chaotic nature of Smith’s tenure, said Duane Bratt, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“We’ve had elections, but we really had dynasties lasting decades. In theory, this race shouldn’t be close. If there was a normal incumbent UCP leader, they would be winning re-election quite easily. So much of this is about the lack of trust and questions over the judgment and competency of Danielle Smith.”
Rachel Notley, the former premier whose New Democrats won a surprise majority in 2015, is hoping to capitalize on that weakness – and to make provincial history by winning another term. Notley has remained popular within her own party and remains within striking distance of a second term as premier.
Notley, who as premier unveiled ambitious environmental policies, has also remained silent on climate change, instead running a campaign largely focused on rebuilding the province’s battered health care system, which was strained under the coronavirus pandemic and faces cuts and the prospect of privatization of certain medical procedures. She has also worked to lure in disaffected conservatives, promising balanced budgets to placate worries her government isn’t fiscally responsible.
Rural Alberta remains firmly conservative, but fierce electoral battles are being fought for urban centres. The NDP is poised to perform strongly in Edmonton, the province’s second largest city, meaning the result in Calgary will determine who forms the provincial government.
To win, the NDP needs to convince Albertans who have voted conservative for most of their life to switch parties – a feat that would have been nearly impossible without the recent scandals around the UCP, says Bratt. In a province that has never had a minority government – or even a close election –pollsters have largely given up trying to predict a winner.
The stakes are high for Notley, whose political future looks uncertain unless she can steer her party to victory. But analysts have also speculated that even with a decisive victory, Smith could be forced out by her own party. In nearly two decades, no conservative premier has served a full term in office, said Bratt, adding that no electoral victory has been enough to stave off disgruntled factions.
“This election has big implications for the province and for Canada,” he said. “I don’t think the drama ends on Monday night.”
