It’s starting to feel a little bit like 1998 again in St. Louis, isn’t it?
Sure, Aaron Judge is the only one in baseball who is chasing the single-season home run record (which is 73, not 61), but Albert Pujols’ quest to hit 700 home runs for his career feels significantly more urgent.
Judge may have another crack at Barry Bonds’ record. Pujols has made clear he intends to retire after this season whether or not he becomes the fourth player in MLB history to reach 700.
Sportsbooks all over are rushing to price out the odds here. One oddsmaker and market analyst told BetFTW the true percentage for Pujols to hit 700 is 18 percent—odds that translate to about +425.
At the rate he’s currently hitting, the Cardinals legend will surely make that number look comical by the end of the year.
Highest wRC+ since July 10, min 50 PA:
Albert Pujols: 265 (83 PA, for context)
Aaron Judge: 239 (165 PA)
Paul Goldschmidt: 202 (137 PA)
Vaughn Grissom: 202 (50 PA)— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) August 23, 2022
Albert Pujols, at 42 years and 218 days, is the oldest player ever with 7 HR in a 10-game span.
That distinction previously belonged to Ted Williams, who hit 7 HR in a 10-game span as a 41-year-old in 1960. pic.twitter.com/eTdr0qdIin
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 23, 2022
Over his last 10 games, Albert Pujols of the @Cardinals has had:
– 3 games with 8+ total bases
– a pinch-hit grand slam
– a game going 4-for-4 (or better) with multiple HR
– a HR in a 1-0 winNo other player in MLB history has accomplished all those feats over an entire season.
— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) August 23, 2022
Since the All-Star break, top in in MLB in OPS, minimum 50 PA:
Albert Pujols: 1.462
Aaron Judge: 1.257
Paul Goldschmidt: 1.213
Vaughn Grissom: 1.092
Jake Fraley: 1.089
Nolan Arenado: 1.023
Alex Bregman: 1.013
Shohei Ohtani: .991
Adley Rutschman: .979
Trayce Thompson: .977— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 23, 2022
Albert Pujols has been tearing it up this month.
His numbers have been insane as he closes in on 700 home runs.
23/52 – .442
8 HRs
18 RBIsPujols is sitting at 693 bombs in his career. Does he reach 700 with 40 games remaining?
O 699.5 (+900)
U 699.5 (-1600)Odds @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/B8kuuhIL9D
— Covers (@Covers) August 23, 2022
Of course, that’s not how baseball works. Small sample sizes are often more fun in the abstract. The reality is Pujols rakes against lefties and does little damage against anyone else.
Baseball-Reference gives him a 15 percent chance to reach 700 even at his current rate:
Updated since Pujols hit 693 yesterday:#PujolsWatch | #STLCards https://t.co/F4WVIhSErq pic.twitter.com/huOerXOVrT
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) August 23, 2022
But let’s consider a few important factors here.
- Those RHP/LHP splits are no joke.
2022 Stats BA OBP SLG HR vs. RHP .184 .285 .316 4 vs. LHP .398 .436 .807 10 - The Cardinals are five games up on the Brewers for first in the NL Central and have the third-easiest schedule remaining. Seven of those upcoming games are in extremely hitter-friendly stadiums like Wrigley Field and Great American Ball Park.
- Pujols is going to get every opportunity possible to mash a home run. No matter the score, the inning or if he’s on the bench.
Albert Pujols is the 3rd player in MLB history to hit a pinch-hit grand slam in the first 3 innings of a game.
He joins Bobby Murcer (1971) and Gene Freese (1959). https://t.co/vyTNC2R1kx
— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) August 18, 2022
Any time a lefty enters the game, it’s fair to assume Pujols will, too. So if Baseball Reference is assuming that 15 percent chance comes with him playing in just 59 percent of St. Louis’ remaining games, it’s not hard to imagine him surpassing that threshold and increasing his odds.
Here’s the other bit of reality: Watching great players chase historic milestones never, ever gets old. Crazier things have happened in baseball than someone who’s nickname is literally The Machine continuing to produce at a ridiculous rate.
Bet on Pujols hitting No. 700 this year. Bet on it because no one wants to root for this under to hit. Bet on it because many of the prices offered will be so far off the true value it’s impossible to turn down. Bet on it because we all deserve to witness greatness while we can.
But first accept that the odds are stacked against you before you place that bet. Because baseball, if nothing else, is cruelty in action.
