The federal Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, has spent more than a fortnight in Queensland since parliament rose in early December as he stakes out northern seats as a key part of his plan to form government.
A Guardian Australia analysis of seats visited by both Scott Morrison and the opposition leader in the six weeks since the “phoney campaign” began shows Queensland has been the focus for Labor but the prime minister has zeroed in on marginal seats in New South Wales.
Albanese’s three Queensland visits, which included a pre-Christmas holiday in Bargara near Bundaberg, have focused on Coalition-held seats, including the safe seats of Dawson, held on a 14.6% margin, and Hinkler, held on 14.5%.
In a 10-day blitz of Queensland seats this month, Albanese has also campaigned in the more marginal government-held seats of Herbert, Leichhardt, Longman, Brisbane, Capricornia and Flynn.
At the last election, Queensland was the Coalition’s strongest performing state, with the Liberal National party securing 58% of the vote on a two-party-preferred basis in what was a 4.3% swing towards them.
Labor now holds just six of 30 seats in the state and believes it needs to claw back ground in order to form government – with Longman, Flynn and Leichhardt seen as the most likely gains.
During his most recent Queensland visit, Albanese acknowledged the Labor party’s poor performance in the state in 2019 and said the party needed to do better.
“Well, we didn’t get enough votes right around Queensland. One of the things that I’ve been determined to do is to make sure that we do better right around Queensland,” Albanese said while campaigning in Townsville in the seat of Herbert, held by the LNP’s Phil Thompson with an 8.4% margin.
“Across the board, we weren’t successful enough. We’ve learned the lessons. We did a whole review into it … our policy offering wasn’t strong enough to secure the support of people in Queensland.”
Albanese said he believed Queenslanders were ready for a change in government but after the swing towards the Coalition in 2019, the ALP faces large margins in seats previously held in order to form government.
Capricornia, held by the Nationals MP Michelle Landry, was once a traditional Labor seat but over four elections, from 2010 to 2019, Labor’s first preference vote has halved in the seat.
The declining vote has been attributed to Labor’s climate policies – with much of the wealth in central Queensland coming from coal mining.
In a visit to the seat of Dawson, where Albanese was asked about government approvals for the New Acland coalmine, a local journalist challenged him on how “coal workers in the regions can trust you’ll protect their jobs”.
“I’m in favour of projects as long as they receive environmental approvals going forward,” he said.
Albanese has prioritised Queensland over summer but he has also visited the seats of Adelaide and Boothby in South Australia and Bass in Tasmania.
The prime minister, by contrast, has mainly visited NSW electorates where the Coalition believes it stands the strongest chance of winning seats off Labor.
The Coalition, which now holds 76 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives, needs to retain that number but must offset expected losses in Western Australia where the federal government is deeply unpopular.
Morrison found time in December to briefly visit marginal seats in Tasmania, Victoria and Queensland – but the Omicron outbreak has seen him mostly confined to Canberra in the first few weeks of January.
The seats Morrison has chosen to visit suggest the government is targeting a swag of Labor held marginals, including Corangamite in Victoria, held by Labor’s Libby Coker on a 1% margin, Eden Monaro in NSW held on a 0.8% margin and Macquarie held on 0.2% – Labor’s most marginal seat.
Last week, the Liberal party endorsed former NSW transport minister Andrew Constance for the seat of Gilmore, which the Coalition is hoping to win back from Labor’s Fiona Phillips, who holds the seat on a 2.6% margin.
Both leaders also found time in December to visit the Coalition marginal western NSW seat of Reid, held by the Liberals’ Fiona Martin on a 3.2% margin, which will be a key battleground.
Morrison, who has been derided in Victoria as the “prime minister for NSW”, also found time to campaign in Lindsay, held by the Coalition on a 5% margin, a seat also visited by Albanese last month.
In Queensland, Morrison has visited the Labor-held marginals of Lilley, held on a 0.6% margin, and Moreton, held on a 1.9% margin.
With the election firming for May – most likely 14 May or 21 May – a formal campaign will begin in earnest within the next 12 weeks.
Morrison’s hope for a strong campaign in NSW is being hampered by the party’s failure to endorse candidates in a range of critical seats, with preselections being delayed as a result of factional infighting in the state.
Sitting MPs including Alex Hawke, Trent Zimmerman and Sussan Ley are all under threat if plebiscite ballots go ahead, leading to factional leaders attempting to negotiate a peace settlement ahead of the election.
