The Australian government will claim it is on track to meet its legislated 43% emissions reduction target by 2030 after a departmental analysis found it had improved its position over the past year.
The government said annual emissions projections, based on an assessment of government policies and other trends, suggest national climate pollution would be at least 42.6% less than 2005 levels by the end of the decade, compared with 37% last year. The forecast included the impact of an underwriting scheme for new large-scale renewable energy and batteries, and vehicle efficiency standards that from next year require auto companies to start selling more zero and low-emissions cars.
A full assessment of the data was not possible on Tuesday as the government released only a snapshot. The report is due out this week.
The climate change minister, Chris Bowen, said the results were “good news” and that the government was “cleaning up Australia’s climate credibility and decarbonisation after a decade of denial, delay, dysfunction and utter neglect”.
According to the most recent data from March this year, Australia’s emissions are about 28% below 2005 levels. The reduction has been driven by two factors: an influx of solar and wind energy replacing fossil fuel power, and forests and the land having become a “net sink” and absorbed significant amounts of CO2 since 2015.
The inclusion of emissions from forests and the land in the national greenhouse accounts is contentious, as experts say it masks what is happening with fossil fuel use, the main driver of the climate crisis. If the land sector were not included, emissions would be down by less than 2% since 2005.
While CO2 from electricity generation has dropped substantially over the past two decades, that cut has been nearly wiped out by increases at major industrial sites and from transport.
Despite departmental advice last year and now this year that emissions projections were improving, Peter Dutton has declared he would scrap the 43% target if elected next year as the country did not “have any prospect of achieving” it, and would not announce a replacement before the election.
Climate campaigners said the improving projections showed Australia could actually be doing much more by 2030, as scientists have advised.
They have also called on the government to set an ambitious 2035 target, following the lead of the UK, which announced at the Cop29 UN climate summit in Azerbaijan that it would aim for an 81% cut below 1990 levels.
The 2035 goal is due next year. An initial assessment by the Climate Change Authority found a target of up to 75% “would be ambitious and could be achievable if additional action is taken”.
Some organisations say Australia could be making even deeper cuts by 2035. An analysis by the not-for-profit ClimateWorks Centre to be released next month found existing state and territory commitments alone could get the country to a 71% cut in that timeframe, and that it could go further with federal action.
Forty-one social sector groups, including the Australian Council of Social Service (Acoss) and the Uniting church, issued a statement at Cop29 calling for Australia to accelerate its plans and aim for net zero emissions by 2035, rather than 2050.
Cassandra Goldie, the chief executive of Acoss, said the climate crisis hit people experiencing disadvantage “first, worse and longest”, but many of the solutions to cutting emissions were already available.
“We’re seeing first-hand the toll climate change is taking on people’s lives, mental and physical health, cost of living, housing, and quality of life,” Goldie said. “Their futures and wellbeing are squarely in the government’s hands and having an ambitious, science-based 2035 target is crucial.”
In addition to the baseline scenario, the emissions forecast included a “with additional measures” category that considered policies that have been announced but not yet introduced. The government said this policy would lift the cut to 42.7%.
The projections also included a calculation of how Australia was performing against a cumulative emissions budget from 2021 to 2030. It said the country was projected to beat this target by 3%.
