Air Force vs. Wyoming: How the Falcons can win
Can Air Force Remain the Lone Unbeaten in the Mountain West?
Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire
It’s Double Chin Strap Time as the Pokes Invade Colorado Springs
WEEK 7: Air Force Falcons 5-0 (3-0) vs. Wyoming Cowboys 5-1 (2-0)
WHEN: Saturday, October 14th — 5:00 P.M. MT/ 4:00 P.M. PT
WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)
WEATHER: Sunny. High around 55F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph.
TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Justin Walters (sidelines)
STREAM: FuboTV
RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)
SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 30-27-3
WEBSITES: GoWYO.com, the official Wyoming athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Wyoming | Air Force
SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 10.9
FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 13.8
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 93.61% Win Probability (31.3-11.45)
College Review with former Falcons RB Brad Roberts I The CCF Podcast I #CUBuffs #CUFootball #CUBoulderSports #GoBuffs #CSURams #CSUFootball #FortCollinsSports #GoRams #AirForceFalcons #USAFAFootball #USAFABasketball #AirForceAcademySports #GoFalcons https://t.co/JLQrYXhdRa
— Colorado Collegiate Focus (@CCF_Sports) October 10, 2023
For the second week in a row, the Wyoming Cowboys find themselves battling another Mountain West contender. Coming off of an impressive win over Fresno State, Wyoming packs their bags, leaving the comforts of Laradise as they head South to Colorado Springs.
The Pokes are usually a difficult draw for Air Force, defeating Troy Calhoun’s squad in Laramie last year. So they will not be lacking for confidence coming to Falcon Stadium on Saturday, fresh off of a very impressive performance. Typically, a physical team that likes to run the ball, paired with good defense (sound like another team you know?), the Pokes got a boost from their quarterback, Andrew Peasley who had a very good game.
Peasley is no stranger to Air Force, as he’s had some of his best performances against the Falcons. Brian Knorr’s defensive unit could have their hands full with the Mountain West’s reigning offensive player of the week. If they aren’t able to do a better job than the prior two years, Air Force may be handed their first conference loss of the season by Andrew Peasley for the third season in a row.
HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN DEFEAT THE COWBOYS
It wasn’t just that Wyoming beat the defending conference champs last week, but how they did so that should have the attention of Air Force, and the rest of the Mountain West. Outside of an uncharacteristic, missed 47 yard field goal from their Lou Groza Award Watchlist kicker, John Hoyland, the Pokes were dominant in all aspects of the game.
To avoid the same fate as Fresno State, the Falcons can’t let Wyoming’s passing game catch them off guard early. Andrew Peasley tossed three touchdowns in the first half last week. In similar fashion, he took advantage of generous cushions offered by the Air Force secondary in last year’s game. As one of the nation’s best defenses, their pass defense being 4th best in the country, the Falcons have to play like it early.
Craig Bohl wants his team to impose their will by running the ball. And they are very good at it, racking up over 170 yards per game on the ground. But it’s when the passing game is going that the Cowboys are really dangerous, because the honesty with which the defense has to dignify the pass attack leaves them vulnerable to an already imposing rushing attack. It’s not that dissimilar from Air Force’s approach.
There is going to be a lot of pressure on C.J. Boyd at spur and the standout safeties, Trey Taylor and Jayden Goodwin to consistently defend the run and the pass. Thankfully, this is a collective that has been up to the task week in and week out.
Run. The. Ball. 😤 pic.twitter.com/Ejh0jNavYY
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) October 11, 2023
Now to the offense. Air Force has been as good as anyone in the country coming away with points every time they have the ball. They will be facing the best defensive front this week though, that is probably the best they’ll play all season. The Wyoming defensive line is insanely deep and talented. And it doesn’t get any easier when you get to their linebackers, with two of the best in the conference in Easton Gibbs and Shae Suiaunoa.
This unit was the leading cause of what was largely an ineffective Air Force offense last year. They can’t let that be the narrative in 2023. Quarterback Zac Larrier is a different kind of problem with his speed. They are going to be relying on his legs and timely gashes through the air to keep drives alive. One of the nation’s best on a per carry average, John Lee Eldridge II is going to have to continue with his impressive numbers. With what has become a relentless and multiple offense, it should afford these playmakers opportunities to make a difference in situations that simply weren’t there last year.
Last and certainly not least, they cannot turn the ball over. They’ve done a great job taking care of the rock the last few weeks and it will be critical that continues this week. That includes recovering your own fumbles, because getting behind the sticks from a poor pitch or penetration can be a drive ender.
My good friend and writer for the Mountain West Connection, Nittany Falcon said something that stuck with me as we were discussing this game. Wyoming isn’t doing anything that impressive. They gave up a lot of points to New Mexico, looked underwhelming against Portland State and their win against Appalachian State looks less and less impressive each week. Take a look at his take on the matchup here.
I think my friend and Falcon contributor is right. There is matching mediocrity to the moments of brilliance for Wyoming. But despite that, I simply cannot see how Air Force is a two-score favorite. It was a very similar story last year, and we’ve documented ad nauseam here. Maybe I respect that defensive front too much, but I see this as a closely contested affair to the very end. The Air Force offense is better though, their defense is better, and they are going to prove that their (lack of) strength of schedule is an overblown narrative.
Air Force 24 – Wyoming 20
