Air Force vs. Utah State: Why the Falcons will win
Conference Play Kick’s Off at Falcon Stadium on Friday Night
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Can the Falcons finally get a win over the Blake Anderson era Aggies?
WEEK 3: Air Force Falcons 2-0 (0-0) vs. Utah State Aggies 1-1 (0-0)
WHEN: Friday, September 15th — 6:00 P.M. MT/ 5:00 P.M. PT
WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)
WEATHER: A few clouds from time to time. Low 46F. WSW winds shifting to NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
TV: CBS Sports Network CBSSN: Alex Del Barrio, Robert Turbin and Emily Proud
STREAM: FuboTV
RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)
SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 6-5
WEBSITES: UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Utah State | Air Force
SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 13.6
FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 12.3
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 69.73% (25-17.26)
https://x.com/AF_Football/status/1701278094991266095?s=20
Game 3: Air Force vs. Utah Statehttps://t.co/XTnbEAvmSH pic.twitter.com/JuPVcMbVAo
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) September 11, 2023
Will this be the year that Air Force hands Blake Anderson his first loss to the Falcons? The series between these schools has been pretty even, with only a slight edge going to the Falcons winning six of 11 matchups. But the past two years, Utah State has had their number under Blake Anderson.
Last season, Air Force was a two score favorite to beat the Aggies, but the trio of Cooper Legas, Calvin Tyler, and Brian Cobbs proved to be too much for what wound up being a 10 win Falcon team. While Tyler and Cobbs are no longer there, Legas has Terrell Vaughn and Rashul Faison making up a formidable 2023 edition.
Like last year, the Air Force defense looks dominant. Mind you, they lost to the Aggies while surrendering 34 points last year, which saw the Falcons end the season with the top ranked defense in the country. That defense has looked impressive again, but it’s hard to really know when you consider the anemic offenses they have faced.
Offensively, it’s difficult to know just how good they are as they piled up points on an underwhelming FCS opponent to start the season, and then struggled a bit versus what may wind up being a very good Sam Houston defensive group. There is still much to learn yet about the Falcons offense.
Utah State had a solid showing in their season opener against a ranked Iowa team, albeit in a losing effort. After mustering just 14 points against the Hawkeyes, they bounced back scoring nearly 80 points last week versus FCS competition, Idaho State. Regardless of the competition, the Aggies 250 yards rushing per game should have the Falcons attention.
I’m not sure how much these results can be used to conclude a winner in this Friday’s Mountain West Conference opener, but there are plenty of subplots with which to project why either team may be expected to win this bout.
HERE’S WHY AIR FORCE WILL WIN AGAINST THE AGGIES
Unlike their first two games, which saw the Falcons fumble the ball a whopping six times, they should have a considerable focus on ball security this Friday. You would think that’s a given in an program that is obsessed with details, but they have been fortunate to only lose two of those half dozen fumbles. Turnovers have played a significant role in their losses to Utah State the previous two meetings, they would do very well to avoid them in 2023.
The fumbling may also prove an opportunity for others to contribute. Considering fumbles likely led to one of the underclassmen ball carriers to see more carries. Don’t be surprised if Dylan Carson sees a significant increase in carries this week at fullback. He’s got quick feet and wearing number 20 can only mean good things when you’re a Falcon ball carrier.
Alec Mock had 11 tackles, including six solo stops and a tackle for loss 😤
He led an @AF_Football defense that allowed just 80 yards of total offense, the fourth-lowest total by an Air Force opponent in program history ⚡️#AtThePEAK | #MWFB | #FlyFightWin pic.twitter.com/1J5XYRPTfD
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) September 11, 2023
After the previous encounter, Air Force’s defense should be prepared for Cooper Legas ability to do damage on the ground, not just as a passer. He chipped in 76 yards and a tudd carrying the rock, which was a contributing factor to the Falcons inability to stop the Aggie offense. The Air Force defense is still very good, and a lot of players were on that field last year will remember what happened. Expect them to play at a very high level this time around.
Confidence in the defensive unit holding up their part is more than reasonable. The offense clearly leave a few more question marks. The offensive line is the strength of the offense, executing the multiple run attack at a high level will be a must this week. There is plenty of talent on this offense with Larrier, Eldridge III and crew, and they have yet to unleash Dane Kinamon at all this season. Perhaps this is the week it happens. Kinamon can be an absolute game changer.
I’ll try and capture the essence of an Air Force victory in a not-so-complex recipe. Win the turnover battle, allow Utah State to continue averaging 75 penalty yards per game, feature three 75 yard ball carriers, don’t allow a surprise Aggie impact performer (I’m talking about former Falcon Micah Davis here), continued front seven dominance, and win in the redzone on both sides of the ball.
If Troy Calhoun’s bunch can deliver on those key areas, the Falcon’s should be able to start the year 1-0 in conference play. It will not be easy, but it’s time to get back on the winning end of these games with the Aggies.
Air Force 27 – Utah State 24
