Aidan Hutchinson had himself an impressive rookie campaign for his hometown Detroit Lions. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft burst onto the scene with 9.5 sacks, 52 tackles, three INTs, two fumble recoveries and nine TFLs. The performance earned Hutchinson the runner-up as the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year and helped spearhead a Lions defense that got significantly better as the seasons progressed.
The trick for Hutchinson is to build on his strong rookie campaign. To get an idea of what to expect from Hutchinson in Year 2, I took a look back at some similar historical comps and how they performed in their sophomore NFL seasons.
The players chosen here are all top-15 overall selections who weigh above 260 pounds and play the EDGE spot at least somewhat similar to Hutchinson — versatile alignment with power to speed as a preferred (but not exclusive) rush tactic.
Chris Long
The first comparison I looked at is the player who was Hutchinson’s most direct player comp as a draft prospect: Chris Long. The No. 2 overall pick of the 2008 NFL draft by the Rams (then in St. Louis) had a much slower start to his career than Hutchinson did, however.
Rookie season: Four sacks, 40 tackles, one forced fumble
Second season: Five sacks, 43 tackles, one forced fumble
Those Rams teams were terrible, winning just two games in Long’s rookie year and dropping to 1-15 in Year 2. Lions fans tend to forget that the Rams were quite nearly as awful as the winless Detroit team in 2008. In other words, Long didn’t have much to work with. His big statistical jump came in his third season, when Long primarily moved to the other side of the formation and had a better team around him.
Chase Young
Young was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft, making him the last pass rusher selected in that slot before Hutchinson. The Commanders EDGE had a standout debut campaign, earning Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Rookie season: 7.5 sacks, 44 tackles, four PDs, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries
Second season: 1.5 sacks, 23 tackles, two PDs, two forced fumbles
Ever since then, Young has battled major injury issues. In his second season, Young played in just nine games before tearing his ACL. Even before the injury, his numbers trended in the wrong direction. He’s the cautionary tale here amongst the Hutchinson comps.
Nick Bosa
Another No. 2 overall pick, Bosa had a similar rookie campaign for the San Francisco 49ers back in 2019 to Hutchinson’s 2022.
Rookie season: Nine sacks, 47 tackles, one INT, 16 TFLs
Second season*: 15.5 sacks, 52 tackles, 21 TFLs, four forced fumbles
Bosa’s second season gets an asterisk because that performance came in his third NFL year. He missed nearly all of the 2020 campaign with an injury, logging just 68 total snaps in two games. The 2021 season was the breakout campaign the 49ers wanted.
Bradley Chubb
Chubb was the No. 5 overall pick back in 2018. The Denver Broncos smartly paired him with an elite rusher in Von Miller, hoping to create chaos from both sides of the formation with dual pass rushers. It worked very well in Chubb’s rookie campaign, when the 275-pounder from North Carolina State finished third in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.
Rookie season: 12 sacks, 60 tackles, two forced fumbles, 14 TFLs
Second season: One sack, 21 tackles, one forced fumble, five TFLs
There could be an asterisk here for Chubb like with Nick Bosa; Chubb played just four games in 2019 before missing the rest of the season with a torn ACL. But he did log nearly 250 snaps before the injury, a solid base sample size. His third year saw Chubb get back to the Pro Bowl with 7.5 sacks and 42 tackles in 14 games.
Joey Bosa
The elder Bosa brother was the No. 3 overall pick of the 2016 NFL draft by the Chargers in their last season in San Diego. He was an instant hit, winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Rookie season: 10.5 sacks, 41 tackles, one forced fumble, 17 TFLs
Second season: 12.5 sacks, 70 tackles, four forced fumbles, 11 TFLs, one fumble recovery
Interestingly, the Chargers defense performed significantly better in 2017. The Bolts charged up from 29th in scoring defense in Bosa’s rookie year to third in Year 2. The Lions were 28th in scoring defense in 2022, a figure that may or may not have pertinence with this player comparison.
J.J. Watt
Watt was the No. 11 overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft by the Houston Texans. Houston had the 29th-ranked defense in 2010, a unit that gave up the same exact amount of points in 16 games (427) that the Lions did in 17 games in Hutchinson’s rookie year.
Rookie season: 5.5 sacks, 55 tackles, two forced fumbles, four PDs, 13 TFLs
Second season: 20.5 sacks, 81 tackles, four forced fumbles, 16 PDs, 39 TFLs
Watt’s first season was impressive but didn’t light up the stat sheet, somewhat akin to how Hutchinson is generally viewed. His second season might be the greatest individual season by any defensive player in NFL history.
Nobody expects such a leap from Hutchinson. Then again, nobody expected such a leap from Watt, either.
Hutchinson projection for 2023
The recent historical comps generally show an uptick, but it’s pretty variable. Avoiding injuries is obviously a key for Hutchinson.
Given the defense he’s in, the group surrounding him and the general state of the overall Lions team, Hutchinson’s second season projection:
11.5 sacks, 43 tackles, 14 TFLs, two INTs, two forced fumbles and a Pro Bowl nod
