Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
That's a phrase most commonly associated with investment and superannuation firms, which use the disclaimer to remind potential suitors that markets shift, and investments shift with them.
But it's applicable to the AFL trade period as well, and in particular, soon-to-be-ex-Melbourne ruckman Luke Jackson.
At 20 years of age, he's played 52 games of football for the Demons, and was outstanding in the 2021 grand final.
Statistically, he's remained at about the same level in 2022, improving slightly in disposals and hit-outs, while slipping slightly in goals and marks inside 50. That could just be due to a change in his time spent in the ruck and forward.
Per Game |
2021 |
2022 |
|---|---|---|
Disposals |
12.8 |
13.8 |
Hit-outs |
10.6 |
11 |
Marks i50 |
0.875 |
0.64 |
Goals |
0.66 |
0.5 |
But while he's had a solid start to his career, it's the future that West Coast and Fremantle are considering as they ponder big deals for the former number three draft pick – reportedly in the realm of $6 million over six years.
And that, according to three-time Premiership coach Mick Malthouse, is a risk.
"He doesn't know whether he's a ruckman or a forward, and he's neither at this stage," he said on ABC Sportstalk.
"If you just took the top 20 or 30 ruckmen in the competition, he would certainly be bottom end.
"If you took the key forwards, he would be bottom end as well.
"He certainly would not be in my top 10 players money-wise because he's just not that great. He's a good player, not a great player by any stretch of imagination.
"I would rather throw my money into midfielders or good key position players rather than a ruckman."
Jackson has requested a trade back to Western Australia, but declined to name which club he preferred to go to.
The Dockers say they are hanging on to Rory Lobb, despite the big man handing in his second trade request in 12 months.
Lobb was told he was too important to the club, especially now Griffin Logue has announced he wants a trade.
The Dockers need Lobb to help developing youngster Jye Amiss and cover for the injury-prone Matt Taberner.
Going against the Dockers' bid to try snare Jackson is a relatively weak draft hand – the club currently holds picks 13 and 72, but will receive picks for Logue, Blake Acres and potentially Darcy Tucker, after all three requested a trade.
The Eagles aren't thought to be able to match the financial terms Fremantle could offer Jackson, but they can certainly offer more to Melbourne.
West Coast goes into the draft with pick two, which it must get approval to trade, and picks 20, 26 and 38.
What do the clubs need?
A replacement for Logue will be a big focus for Fremantle.
Drafted as a key defender, Logue was re-imagined late in season 2022, spending time up forward and looking like he might have a future as a goalkicker for the club
Clearly, a key forward is the priority. The Dockers have two AFL standard rucks, in Sean Darcy and Lloyd Meek (assuming he stays), but are severely lacking in attack.
Only six teams kicked fewer goals than Fremantle's 251 in 2022, and two of them finished last and second-last.
Of the eventual finalists, the Dockers had the worst ratio of inside 50s to goals kicked, booting a major every 4.5 times they go inside the arc.
Amiss will likely be a very good AFL player, but will require time to develop, while Taberner's inability to remain fit must be a concern for the club.
While Logue's marking in the front half was solid late in 2022, skipper Nat Fyfe could also play that marking high half-forward role next year.
And the departure of Acres will leave a hole on the wing, but the Dockers have excellent midfield depth, with Neil Erasmus and Matt Johnson plying their trade at Peel Thunder, and Liam Henry yet to realise his potential.
Eagles a radically different proposition
West Coast is in a very different position. While Fremantle is on the hunt for final pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, the Eagles are just unwrapping the box.
The retirement of Josh Kennedy and the trade of Junior Rioli leave some obvious holes to fill, but the club will be looking for improvement across the board after a disastrous 2022 campaign.
West Coast ended the season with 11 players either inactive or missing through injury, and will get Oscar Allen, Jeremy McGovern and Elliot Yeo back for 2023, while 2021 first-round pick Campbell Chesser will eventually make his AFL debut.
The club has indicated it will go to the draft, and could split its valuable pick two for some later first-round pick as it tries to supercharge its rebuild.
Whether Luke Jackson is part of that, or is wearing purple next season, remains to be seen.
