Like a good cricket test match, Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections seem to be headed for an exciting finish after four rounds done. On the eve of polling for phase five, all three results seem possible. During the telecast of a test match, analysts like to divide a day into sessions. If we apply cricket analogy, the defender, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the contender, the Samajwadi Party (SP), are on an even keel, with the latter having a slight advantage in momentum as the contest moves towards the decisive last three phases in the eastern part of the State.
It would be too early to judge a winner in such a closely fought election, where this reporter has seen people living under the same roof divided between the alliances on which the BJP and the SP are fighting it out. Nevertheless, there are some clear takeaways, and a few important ifs and buts.
Firstly, in a bid to highlight the bigger issues of nationalism, dynastic politics, and appeasement, the BJP lost track of the micromanagement that it so smartly did in the last election. Stray cattle is a real issue across the State , even bigger than the farm laws in terms of resonance at the grassroots, and the ruling party woke up to it only in the middle of its campaign. In the run-up to the election, Chief Minister Yogi Adiyanath only focussed on the closure of illegal slaughterhouses; it was only after the third round that he started saying he would ensure shelterless cattle didn’t damage farmers’ crops.
There is anti-incumbency against sitting BJP MLAs in a significant number of constituencies and the BJP missed a trick by not cutting out tickets to non-performers. It was stopped in its tracks by a well-timed switch of lower Other Backward Class (OBC)/ Most Backward Class (MBC) leaders to the SP. Across districts, the common grouse is that the BJP’s MLA was not good enough to assert himself even at the local police station. Voters recalled the SP-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) days when a phone call was enough to “get the job done”.
Observers said the drop in the percentage of voting in urban areas is a reflection of this disillusionment of the BJP voter. In Aligarh, citing a criminal case, a core BJP supporter said a local BJP leader was languishing in jail because he had “unnecessarily attacked a Muslim”. “During the SP rule, the party ensured the safety of its cadre come what may. This attitude looks good but hurts the party’s interest,” he pointed out.
Even its critics admit that the BJP excelled in reducing crime, improving the ration delivery system, and most importantly, providing dwellings to the poor under the PM Awas Yojana. But they add in the same vein that the BJP diminished its gains by focusing largely on the Hindutva — Hindu-Muslim polarisation and the Ram temple — issues that had lost their bite during the pandemic. By the time “new material”, that is, the hijab row and the Ahmedabad blast judgment gained traction, the fate of at least two phases had been decided.
Secondly, the newfound bonhomie between Jats and Muslims, and the consolidation of Yadavs and Muslims, has led to a “counter integration” of MBCs, particularly in western U.P., in favour of the BJP. Observers said that just as Muslims fighting on a BSP ticket won’t be able to move the community’s votes with them, OBC leaders who have switched to the SP won’t be able to dent the lower Backward Classes’ fascination for the BJP. One of the examples is the Khatauli seat in Muzaffarnagar.
This leads to another takeaway that security is a real issue for the non-martial, non-Yadav OBCs, and it might impede the prospects of the SP alliance. In some segments, it was heard that the issue of security was even bigger than that of development. The impact of some of the SP’s partners, like the Mahaan Dal, hasn’t lived up to the promise it initially held.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s admission on the significance of the BSP in the midst of the elections indicates the crucial role BSP chief Mayawati is playing in the election. Observers felt that Mr. Shah’s overture could be seen as a “thank you note” to Ms. Mayawati for keeping a low profile during the first two phases, and a signal to play it up in the remaining rounds, where Dalits seem to be mobilised behind the SP alliance. There have been some reports from western U.P. that suggest Dalit voters in villages with a significant Muslim population had switched to the BJP.
Thirdly, BSP insiders don’t read too much into the exchange between Mr. Shah and Ms. Mayawati, and hold on to the hunch of a hung Assembly. The only difference is that they admit the SP is now 10-15 seats ahead of the BJP. “Earlier, I was giving 170 each to the SP and the BJP. Now, the SP seems to be 10-15 seats ahead,” said a senior BSP leader.
A large section of teachers, who play a big part in the poll process, seem to be supporting the SP alliance because of the party’s promise of bringing back the old pension scheme (OPS). The Rajasthan government's decision to implement the OPS has given them hope that the promise is feasible.
A former MLA of the SP said he had received a call from a local Sub Divisional Magistrate following years of asking after his well-being. In general, however, bureaucrats only attest to the mood that they are in the midst of a kante ki takkar (close battle). A senior Indian Police Service officer posted in Bundelkhand said it was indeed a close battle, but his hunch was that it would be a sweep this way or that.
SP supporters admit that the BJP has done well in parts of Bundelkhand and Awadh but also note that these areas constitute only around 100 seats, and that Mr. Yadav’s roadshows in Kanpur saw an unprecedented groundswell of response. “We know that ration and security has to be tackled but the voice from the ground is that the dose of welfare during the pandemic was much lower than required,” said an SP insider who has worked candidates in both western and eastern U.P.
He admitted that the lower OBCs were still mobilised with the BJP but as the elections would move to the State’s east “the Om Prakash Rajbhar factor” is expected to work. “He is not a last-minute entry and has been working against the BJP for a while,” the SP source added.
The Brahmin vote is going to be crucial in the eastern districts. A section of this influential vote bank seems to be anguished with the behaviour of the Chief Minister. A senior BSP leader said the BJP was suffering in this election because two influential castes, the Jats and the Brahmins, were spreading word against it. “And the MBCs are voting as per the arithmetic of the seat. Unlike in the past, they are not mobilised behind one party,” the source said.
The BJP still believes that it would be able to fill the gap created by the departure of some of the castes that voted for it in 2017 by the overarching charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Adityanath, its welfare schemes, and, of course, Hindutva. Its supporters feel that the BJP’s voters are silently voting for the party and the noise being created by the SP and its alliance partners is only helping in coalescing the floating voter behind the ruling party. They note that the BJP could survive the loss but regional outfits like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the BSP, and even the SP, would “disintegrate” if their MLAs failed to taste power this time.
There is, however, the voter’s earthy logic and perhaps newfound pragmatism. Sarvesh Saini, a small farmer from the gardening community, which according to poll pundits is still polarised towards the BJP, said, “It is always risky to make full payment to the person working for you. You should keep at least a day’s payment with you so that the worker returns the next day. The same is true for politicians. The BJP has done no wrong and my brother has voted for the lotus [the BJP’s symbol] but I have voted for change. Let’s try the cycle [the SP’s symbol], this time. Akhilesh seems to have mended his ways.”
