The relief felt by Germany’s Social Democrats at having narrowly won a regional election against the far right was tempered on Monday when it became clear they would need the support of hard-left Russophiles in order to form a government.
Olaf Scholz’s centre-left party pulled off an unexpected victory in Brandenburg on Sunday, receiving 31% of the vote after a mass tactical voting drive to exclude the far-right populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).
While there was relief at the SPD’s headquarters in Berlin, there was no escaping the fact that Germany’s political landscape has been profoundly shaken by a rise in support for populist extremists of different political shades.
The AfD, touting proposals for mass deportations, achieved its best result in Brandenburg, a state the SPD has governed since reunification. The far-right party came second with 29% of the vote after a wave of youth support.
Three other parties with whom the SPD would usually consider a partnership performed miserably, with the Greens failing to get into parliament at all. The leftist-conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which came in third with 13%, appears crucial to coalition talks.
The SPD now faces negotiations with a party that is demanding a cancellation of plans to station US long-range missiles in Germany and is calling for Berlin to push for peace talks with Moscow rather than supply Ukraine with weapons.
In a sobering recognition of the task ahead, Brandenburg’s leader, the SPD’s Dietmar Woidke, said: “Political stability will not be easy to achieve.”
Kevin Kühnert, the SPD’s general secretary in Berlin, said the party had contacted the BSW, but admitted that it knew very little about its regional political strategy. He predicted “a Pandora’s box” would open if and when talks began.
Like the AfD, the BSW is anti-Nato, Kremlin-friendly and anti-migration, skilled at tuning into, as well as stoking, voters’ fears over living costs, immigration and a sense that Scholz’s government is endangering the safety of its own citizens by sending weapons to Ukraine.
Analysts said the Brandenburg results reinforced the notion that extremist parties were increasingly able to set the agenda. The BSW is also the kingmaker in two other eastern states, Thuringia and Saxony, where recent elections resulted in strong showings for the AfD, with which mainstream parties refuse to govern.
In Brandenburg, a coalition between the SPD and the Christian Democrats might have been a possibility, but the centre-right party won only 11% of the vote, its worst performance in the state. The result means that an alliance between the two mainstream parties would be one seat short of the necessary majority.
Woidke’s win was seen to have been partly as a result of him distancing himself from the increasingly unpopular Scholz. He had made it clear that the chancellor was not welcome on the campaign trail, even though Scholz and his wife live in the state capital, Potsdam.
Woidke himself preferred to attribute his success to his party’s effort to keep the far right out. The AfD had been leading in the polls for a year leading up to Sunday’s election.
Woidke claimed the SPD was the only party to have clearly stated its aim to keep the AfD out of power. Other parties had tried to bring national issues to the regional campaign and to focus on the poor standing of Scholz’s government.
On Monday, as he was received as a party hero at the SPD’s Willy Brandt House headquarters, Woidke said: “We were the only political power in Brandenburg that said right from the start that we would win against the AfD. Others didn’t have the guts to do so.”
Woidke’s win was seen as a harbinger that the SPD could yet save itself before the federal election scheduled for a year’s time. The party’s poll ratings are at rock bottom, while Scholz’s popularity rating is lower than any of his predecessors.
The SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil said: “It has become clear that if the SPD takes on the fight against the AfD, with a clear stance, then we have a chance to land in first place.”
In the event, however, three-quarters of SPD voters said they had been motivated by the desire to keep the AfD out of power, rather than a belief in the SPD’s ability to govern. Voter participation was at its highest level ever, at 73%.
The AfD’s party leaders predicted that the mainstream parties’ “firewall” would be difficult to maintain in light of its growing electoral successes.
Police said they were investigating reports and videos circling on social media appearing to show members of the party’s youth wing singing along to an AI-manipulated song in which a plan to “deport millions” of foreigners was feted.
The AfD had put the issue of what it calls “remigration” at the centre of its campaign, with the slogan “Re:migration – of course” plastered on campaign posters and party memorabilia.
Analysis of the Brandenburg result showed the AfD had made considerable gains compared with the last state election in 2019, in particular among young people, enjoying a 16.6% increase in support among 16- to 24-year-olds.
By contrast, the Greens lost support in every age bracket, most starkly among the youngest group, dropping 25 percentage points.
