From the brink of collapse to the precipice of redemption. Defeated and denounced to a Hollywood-worthy resurrection – only to crumble to their worst defeat in the final dress rehearsal at Twickenham. The All Blacks have fashioned an art form of traversing such extremes as they stumble toward the World Cup. Whether the canvas concludes in France in triumph or despair is brushed with uncertainty.
For a team that has crafted its legacy on consistent excellence, the All Blacks have never experienced a four-year cycle comparable with this one. Wild and unpredictable only begins to scratch the surface.
To appreciate the fluctuating scale of turmoil and defiance we must rewind to July last year when the three-time world champions lost four from five Tests. Such a dire run happens in rugby but rarely to the All Blacks.
A historic home-series loss to Ireland that included the All Blacks first successive defeats in New Zealand for 24 years sparked a deafening cacophony of criticism that threatened to claim an unprecedented coaching clearout.
Demanding expectations are woven into the fabric of the black jersey. With those in tatters, as the All Blacks plummeted to fifth in the world rankings for the first time, public pressure built to tear the national team apart at the seams.
With much of the blame laid at the feet of the coach, Ian Foster, he reacted by culling two assistants – 14 months out from the World Cup. Foster was granted a stay of execution, allowing him to lead the team to South Africa for a daunting two-Test series that would define his fate.
For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The revival was not immediate, with the All Blacks’ one-sided defeat in Mbombela offering little hope, but the transformation bubbled to a climax from the improbable concoction of needing to save Foster’s job at Ellis Park, the hostile home of South African rugby.
Set against the consuming backdrop of New Zealand Rugby bosses sounding out the Crusaders coach, Scott Robertson, for the top job, the All Blacks channelled a siege mentality to cajole an inspired performance that proved the catalyst for a turning point in this World Cup cycle.
Aside from victory at Ellis Park and vocal support from senior players, convincing the former Ireland head coach Joe Schmidt to become a full-time assistant was Foster’s other trump card. Schmidt, combined with the new forwards coach, Jason Ryan, instigated a profound impact remodelling the team.
Further setbacks, though, in the form of the maiden home defeat by Argentina in Christchurch in Foster’s first Test since retaining his job revived the discourse of dismay before improvements were evident from the new coaching team.
Seven successive victories followed the defeat by Argentina, but finishing the year with a second-half collapse in the draw with a faltering England at Twickenham marked 2022 as one of the worst seasons in their history. While growing pains were apparent throughout last year, with the All Blacks struggling to produce back-to-back compelling performances, Ryan and Schmidt ushered in telling changes.
During his time as Robertson’s right-hand man, Ryan led the Crusaders’ forward pack to six straight Super Rugby titles. Promoting him to the All Blacks, at John Plumtree’s expense, proved a masterstroke from Foster. In his first press appearance as the national forwards mentor, Ryan candidly conceded the pack had been dented. With that blunt, no-nonsense attitude he overhauled their flaws.
The All Blacks’ maul defence, their set-piece, carry and clean height dramatically improved as Ryan stripped back the unnecessary, cluttering detail to restore a platform to compete with the world’s best.
Schmidt’s value is similarly wide-reaching. At the depths of their struggles last year the All Blacks were stale and predictable. With his knowledge of the northern hemisphere, eye for detail and love of set-plays, Schmidt aligned with Foster to evolve the All Blacks attack through a clarity of gameplan that often revolves around ball retention, playing at pace and creating space through accurate, attacking kicks to the edges.
Ryan and Schmidt added a ruthless element to selection, too, that accelerated the All Blacks settling on first-choice combinations. Those include belatedly switching Jordie Barrett from full-back to second five-eighth. Anointing Richie Mo’unga as the preferred playmaker. Promoting props Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax to anchor the front row. Shannon Frizell seizing the blindside flanker brief through brutal dominance and Will Jordan returning to the scene.
When the All Blacks left home two weeks ago after securing the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup to compile an 11-Test unbeaten run confidence had been restored. There are no guarantees with a ridiculously lopsided draw lumping the top-five ranked nations on a sudden-death collision course in rugby’s version of Squid Game. Doomsday predictions enveloping the All Blacks had lifted, though.
A week is, however, an eternity in rugby. As the cards and carnage flowed against the rampant Springboks at Twickenham last Friday, the All Blacks emerged with their worst defeat and a humbling flashback to last year’s dark days. Aberration or newly inflicted wounds? All will be revealed. Injuries to the influential forwards Brodie Retallick, Frizell and Lomax leaves the pack vulnerable for their opener against France. Beyond that, a defining quarter-final date with Ireland, South Africa or Scotland is shrouded with angst.
Just as it seemed the All Blacks had bottomed out and bounced back to time their resurgence, the pendulum swings, former flaws return, to have everyone second-guessing their credentials once again. Through their many peaks and troughs the All Blacks have proven ability to respond when widely written off. Which version, the remodelled or most recent vision, lands in France, though, is anyone’s guess.
Liam Napier is the chief sports writer and rugby correspondent for the New Zealand Herald
