After defeating France 1-0 on Friday, the next time the Matildas take the field will be in front of 80,000 people at Stadium Australia for the first game of their 2023 Women’s World Cup against the Republic of Ireland. With another win over a European powerhouse under their belt, the question now is: can the Matildas actually win the tournament?
The answer is yes, potentially.Are they now favourites? No. As two-time defending champions, the United States have earned that honour. European teams such as England, Germany, France and Spain are all fearsome contenders. Importantly though, the notion of a Australian triumph on home soil has evolved to the point where it cannot be considered beyond the realms of possibility.
After the disastrous early results of Tony Gustavsson’s tenure, the Matildas have now won nine of their past 10 games – including victories over Sweden, England, Spain and now France. They have scored 26 goals across this run, and conceded just five.
It is clear that as a collective, functioning unit, this is a better team than the one that Gustavsson rolled out at the start of his tenure. Square pegs are no longer being forced into round holes and the team’s approach is much more conducive to their strengths. There is now a clear plan and philosophy visible in their play, as opposed to mere press conference promises. It is a style that carries the associated risks of an all-or-nothing philosophy – what happens when they go behind? – but when the energy is raised, the pace quickened and the counter sprung, they’re quite good.
And with major tournaments so often resting on fine margins, the Matildas, in stark contrast to a swathe of contenders, are close to full strength in body and mind. They have no absent contributors on the same level as Vivianne Miedema or Leah Williamson, and no rows with their federation over bonus money or working conditions hovering overhead. Distractions are minimal. The team, from the outside, appears united and buoyant. Add to this the significant and unique boost of playing at home with the backing of an openly partisan crowd, and all the intangible little extras are falling into place.
It’s not a bad position to be in. And it also helps establish the parameters of a successful on-field tournament.
Winning a World Cup is the most difficult task in football and to suggest that it is win or bust is disingenuous. Even the harshest of judges, at least the ones operating in good faith, would acknowledge that an appearance in the last four would be a massive success for the Matildas – and, more widely, Australian football.
Conversely, a group stage exit would fairly be categorised as a calamity; a wet thump of a result after years of careful planning and preparation which has contrasted with the various distractions group opponents Ireland, Nigeria and Canada have faced. Such a scenario would not only demand significant consequences for Gustavsson and his staff, but also those at Football Australia who were responsible for his appointment and the continued backing of his vision.
A round of 16 exit, likewise, would be an anticlimactic letdown. Failing to improve on 2019’s performance despite the favourable circumstances of a home World Cup, the growth of the team and stability of the past three years would, again, place a microscope on both Gustavsson and the federation.
The quarter-finals are where the waters are muddied somewhat. The Matildas have three times reached the last eight (although they have only actually had to win a round of 16 game once to do so) but they have never progressed beyond. Now, it almost feels like a tipping point. Given the quality of the teams present, declaring an exit at this point as a failure feels overly simplistic. Yet simultaneously, only the most one-eyed analysis would attempt to portray it as a success.
Given that this is a home World Cup and the team features a golden generation of players mostly in their prime, an expectation of a best-ever performance doesn’t come across as unfair, even with the context of the rapidly improving state of women’s football around the world. The team’s past three years, the experimentation in personnel and a schedule featuring top-10 opposition has been constructed deliberately. The rising global tide means 2023 might be their best ever shot.
The Matildas are a good enough team and have enough favourable circumstances behind them to have lofty goals. There is no reason to understate their potential and should the stars align, then yes, they could well be world champions in a month’s time.
