Imagine trying to recruit a free agent pitcher who is 34 years old and has never won a playoff series. Now imagine you are recruiting for a team that has posted seven straight losing seasons, including the most recent one that included a franchise-tying 106 losses.
That was the task facing Kansas City Royals GM J.J. Piccollo when he set out for a second straight winter to sign righthander Seth Lugo. After losing out to the San Diego Padres last season, Piccollo got his man this time. How in the world does a 106-loss team win the bidding for a veteran starter?
Lugo, Piccollo says, was aware how well Kansas City played after Sept. 1 last year in what already was a lost season (15–12). That was a credit to the young talent and to manager Matt Quatraro. But the real selling point, Piccollo says, was emphasizing to Lugo: “We have two franchise players in Bobby Witt Jr. and Sal Pérez.”
Consider it truth in advertising. The Royals are not just one of the biggest surprise teams of this season. They are one of the greatest turnaround stories of all time. And Witt, 24, and Pérez, 34, are leading the way.
On pace for 89 wins, Kansas City can dislodge the 1987 Cubs and 1989 Orioles, each of which won 87 games, as the record holder for most wins following a 100-loss season. They won’t overtake John McGraw’s 1903 Giants for the greatest improvement in wins (plus-35), but a plus-33 showing would put them among the six most improved teams ever.
The Royals are six games up on a playoff spot with 18 games remaining, making them a near-lock for the postseason. They are the worst nightmare for teams who sit on their hands “rebuilding” after they hit rock bottom. Instead of taking the tanking route, Kansas City spent more money last winter on free agents, $110.5 million, than any American League team. And it has continued to add veteran players as needs arose during the season. The way back is much quicker when you add veteran talent. Imagine that concept.
What’s behind an all-time great turnaround? In order of importance, here are five reasons:
1. Witt and Pérez
The second pick of the 2019 draft behind Adley Rutschman (Witt is two years younger and has a higher career WAR), Witt hit superstar level this season. He is the fastest man in baseball, the best defender at shortstop and two stolen bases away from back-to-back 30-30 seasons. He also hustles unfailingly, often turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples, which is how he fills up a stat sheet like a bingo card. Since baseball was integrated in 1947, Witt is only the third player with 10 triples, 40 doubles and 30 homers in the same season. Nomar Garciaparra and Stan Musial are the others.
Witt began yesterday with an OPS+ of 175. That’s the best such season by any shortstop with at least 140 games played except for Honus Wagner in 1905, 1907 and 1908.
Pérez continues his transformation into a pull-side power monster, which is how his career turned in 2020. A below average hitter in his 20s (OPS+ of 98), Pérez is a slugging force in his 30s (OPS+ of 116).
It began with opening his stance …
… which gave him a full turn into the baseball instead of hitting over his front leg (check his hips at contact)…
Witt and Pérez are carrying this team, especially since Vinnie Pasquantino and his 97 RBI were lost to a hand fracture Aug. 29. They are hitting .355 with runners in scoring position. They have accounted for 62.8% of the team's fWAR. That’s even more than what Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have meant to the Yankees (56.8%).
2. The rotation
Pitching is a game of attrition. The Royals are winning the game of attrition. Only Kansas City and Seattle have four qualified pitchers. The quartet of Lugo, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha and Brady Singer mark the first time since 2016 the franchise has four starters to provide that many innings.
And the Royals are not letting artificial workload barriers get in their way. Kansas City has the most starts this year on four days rest (61). It is 33–28 in those games, and the rotation has held up well. Kansas City’s starters trail only Seattle in innings and ERA.
Lugo (three years, $45 million) and Wacha, 33, (two years, $32 million) are free-agent bargains and just the right additions for a team that needed to learn how to win: durable pitchers and solid teammates.
Ragans, 26, was a steal in a trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to Texas. (Lesson: Always target the best available arm, especially if lefthanded, rather than hedging your bets with quantity.)
Singer, 28, is having a career year after curbing his love for the sinker. If the pitch you throw the majority of time yields a .449 slugging percentage, it’s time to go to Plan B. Give Singer credit. He has done that, trusting a four-seamer and throwing a few more sweepers. He still has an excellent sinker, but by throwing it less he’s making fewer mistakes—and he’s lowered the average height where it crosses the plate.
Singer Career Sinker
3. Putting the ball in play
The Royals take fewer walks than any contender. (Only the Marlins and White Sox have a worse walk rate in all of baseball.) And they are 17th in home runs. (Witt and Pérez account for 35% of the team’s homers.) They need to rely on putting the ball in play and running the bases, the right recipe for their ballpark and in today’s game with so much pitching emphasis on swing and miss.
The four teams that have the lowest strikeout rate are the Padres, Royals, Astros and Guardians. All are in playoff position.
4. Experience
Even with a talented young core, the Royals understood they needed veterans. They loaded up on veteran pitchers. Some haven’t worked out. Nick Anderson, Zach Davies, Luis Cessa, Tyler Duffey and Jordan Lyles all have been released. But Lugo, Wacha, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, John Schreiber and Sam Long all were good bang-for-your-buck buys or trade acquisitions.
Since July 29, the Royals have added Michael Lorenzen, Tommy Pham, Lucas Erceg, Paul DeJong, Yuli Gurriel and Robbie Grossman. Including offseason signings Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson, the Kansas City 26-man postseason roster could have as many as 14 players added since last season.
5. The schedule
Kansas City built a 34–19 start by going 17–4 against the four worst teams in the league: the White Sox, Angels, A’s and Blue Jays. They are 45–46 since.
That’s not a knock on the Royals. They’ve proven themselves fit for contention over the long haul. But an easy schedule through the first one-third of the season allowed the Royals to gain confidence and bank enough wins to make contention possible.
This week Kansas City faces New York at Yankee Stadium to cap a 20-game gauntlet against teams in playoff positions (the first-place Phillies, Guardians, Astros and Yankees and wild-card-holding Twins). Impressively, especially with the loss of Pasquantino in the middle of it, it is 8–9 in that stretch.
If you wanted the short version of how a team that lost 106 games last year is going to the postseason this year, you could have just watched the Royals’ 2–0 win over Minnesota on Sunday. Wacha won his 12th game this year and 100th of his career by going seven shutout innings. Erceg closed it. Hampson drove in the first run with a sacrifice fly. Renfroe, from right field, started a textbook relay to throw a runner out at the plate. Wacha, Erceg, Hampson and Renfroe are new to the team this year.
Of course, Pérez knocked in another run with a scoring position hit (an infield single!) and Witt smacked his 41st double, a line drive off the left field wall. It was Witt’s 66th game this year with an extra-base hit, the most in baseball and two short of the Kansas City record (Hal McRae, 1977).
Up next for Kansas City is the playoff dress rehearsal in the Bronx. It’s almost like old times, with the Yankees and Royals going at it as they did in four ALCS matchups in five years starting in 1976. It’s Judge vs. Witt in an MVP-worthy matchup. It’s the $308 million payroll vs. the $120 million payroll. Most obviously, it is a Royals team that looks nothing like the one from last year.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as After a 106-Loss Season, What's Behind the Royals' Remarkable Turnaround?.
