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Valued at $57.5 billion by market cap, Aflac Incorporated (AFL) provides supplemental health and life insurance products. Headquartered in Columbus, Georgia, AFL is the largest provider of supplemental insurance. Its products include accident and disability, cancer expense, short-term disability, sickness and hospital indemnity, hospital intensive care, and fixed-benefit dental plans.
Shares of this leading supplemental insurer have outperformed the broader market over the past year. AFL has gained 31.2% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 20.7%. However, in 2025, AFL stock is down marginally, lagging behind SPX’s 3.1% rise on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, AFL has also outpaced iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 19.2% over the past year. But, AFL’s gains on a YTD basis slightly lag behind the ETF’s 1.4% returns over the same time frame.
Aflac's current robust price momentum can be attributed to its solid demand and a recent 16% dividend increase for Q1 2025, marking its 42nd consecutive annual dividend hike, which underscores its strong financial health and shareholder commitment.
Aflac reported its Q4 2024 results on Feb. 5, with revenue rising to $5.4 billion, surpassing estimates by 28.6%. However, adjusted EPS came in at $1.56, missing the forecasted $1.62 by 3.7%, as margin pressures and currency fluctuations weighed on profitability despite strong top-line growth. As a result, AFL shares dropped 3.9% in the following trading session.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect AFL’s EPS to fall 4.9% year over year to $6.86 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 18 analysts covering AFL stock, the consensus is a “Hold.” That’s based on two “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 12 “Holds,” and three “Strong Sells.”
This configuration has been fairly consistent over the past months.
On Feb. 10, Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR) lowered Aflac's price target from $122 to $118 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating on the stock, signaling continued confidence in the financial services provider despite the adjustment.
The mean price target of $103.62 represents a marginal premium to AFL’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $122 suggests an upside potential of 18.9%.
