The Chiefs come into the 2023 season with a stranglehold on the AFC West almost unlike any other team in NFL history.
Kansas City is looking to win its division for the eighth consecutive season, something only matched by the Patriots, who won the AFC East an incredible 11 straight times from 2009-19. The Chiefs have been utterly dominant against the West since quarterback Patrick Mahomes arrived, going 16–0 in his divisional-road starts.
Overall, the Chiefs are 27–3 when Mahomes starts against divisional opponents, a figure which must change for the worse if the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos want to compete anytime soon.
The problem? Kansas City is coming off its third Super Bowl appearance and second title in four seasons, and is the favorite to win it all again. While Mahomes is great, coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce are solid bets to be first-ballot Hall of Famers. The offensive line is also one of the NFL’s best, while the running back tandem of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon is tough to handle. Defensively, the Chiefs have playmakers at every level, highlighted by tackle Chris Jones, inside linebacker Nick Bolton and corner L’Jarius Sneed.
If any team is going to challenge the Chiefs for AFC West supremacy, it’s likely the Chargers.
Los Angeles has an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert, along with a trio of talented receivers in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and first-round rookie Quentin Johnston. The Chargers also boast running back Austin Ekeler, who has scored more touchdowns (38) than any player over the past two years.
The question in Los Angeles is whether coach Brandon Staley is the right man for the job after watching the Chargers blow a 27–0 lead to the Jaguars in last season’s wild-card round. The other annual concern is health, as many of Los Angeles’ best players are injury risks.
If the Chargers stay healthy and Staley vastly improves, they can threaten the Chiefs, but those are massive ifs.
Elsewhere, the Raiders are trying to get back to the playoffs after a disastrous first year under coach Josh McDaniels. Las Vegas was a sieve defensively, ranking 28th while losing five games in which it led by at least 10 points. The Raiders didn’t do much to upgrade the defense save for first-round edge rusher Tyree Wilson, who will rotate in alongside veterans Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones.
If Las Vegas is going to make a move, it’ll likely be because quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo starts more than 10 games for only the third time in his career and finds instant chemistry with All-Pro receiver Davante Adams.
In Denver, the Broncos are hoping the union of coach Sean Payton and beleaguered quarterback Russell Wilson makes the latter’s massive extension worth it. If not, Denver is likely staring at a complete overhaul while paying at least one more year of Wilson’s salary before taking on significant dead cap.
If Wilson and Payton can find cohesion, the roster is intriguing enough to make the Broncos a wild-card contender.
Denver Broncos
Best-case: The Broncos get a completely different version of Wilson with Payton at the helm. Payton’s scheme opens up space for running back Javontae Williams, who returns in full from his knee injury. The defense does enough to make the Broncos a playoff contender, with safety Justin Simmons and corner Patrick Surtain II leading the way.
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Worst-case: Wilson continues to look washed up while Payton paces the sideline wondering why he left FOX for this job. The Broncos continue to struggle up front with a quarterback who holds the ball, while the defense falls off after losing Dre’Mont Jones from the front four. It’s another last-place finish in the Mile High City.
Kansas City Chiefs
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Best-case: The Chiefs become the first team to repeat as champions in 20 seasons. Kansas City is loaded offensively behind Mahomes and his hoard of weapons, while the defense shows its abilities led by Bolton and Jones. The combination has Kansas City hosting its sixth consecutive AFC title game before winning the Super Bowl on the Raiders’ home field.
Worst-case: The lack of a star receiver finally bites the Chiefs, as Kelce begins slowing down in his age-33 season. The offensive line is good but the tackles are inconsistent with Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith not living up to expectations on the edges. Overall, Kansas City finds itself in a struggle to win the division.
Las Vegas Raiders
Best-case: Garoppolo returns from his foot injury and plays well under a familiar coach in Josh McDaniels. Rookie tight end Michael Mayer steps up to replace Darren Waller, and the offensive line is solid enough to win games. The defense is spotty but forces big plays behind Pro Bowl edge rusher Crosby and Wilson.
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Worst-case: Garoppolo plays very little, leaving the job to veteran Brian Hoyer. In a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert under center, Las Vegas is forced to air it out with a journeyman. The defense is also a mess, with only Crosby being a legitimate playmaker in the front seven. The result is a house cleaning.
Los Angeles Chargers
Best-case: The Chargers finally stay healthy and achieve to the level so many believe they can. Herbert dominates in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s scheme, while Johnston adds another dimension alongside Allen and Williams. Factor in a defense with edge rusher Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James II, and Los Angeles is a threat to win it all.
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