SUNDAY
NFC championship
Washington Commanders (14–5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16–3)
When/TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Eagles -6.5 (over/under: 47.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles DT Jalen Carter vs. Commanders’ offensive line. Carter disrupted various aspects of the Rams’ offense last week, recording three QB hits, a forced fumble and two sacks, including the game-saving sack that derailed Matthew Stafford’s final drive. Carter is going to need another dominant performance against Daniels & Co. Washington excels at misdirecting defenses with run-pass options, but Carter will face a shorthanded offensive line that lost guard Sam Cosmi to a torn ACL last week. The Commanders racked up 481 total yards against the Lions, including 182 rushing yards. —Manzano
Key stat: It’s Barkley’s time to shine once more. The Commanders have struggled to stop the run this season, ranking 29th by allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Of course, this is a problem against Philadelphia and its 2,000-yard rusher, as the Eagles are fifth in the NFL offensively at 4.9 YPC. —Verderame
Best bet: Commanders +6.5. In most cases, I would be laying the points with the Eagles but at this point, I simply can’t look past Daniels and the Commanders’ offense. Daniels has been the best rookie quarterback in the history of the sport and may now be the best quarterback in the NFC. His ability to use his legs to his advantage while also remaining calm in the pocket is something I rarely see from a player at his position. The Commanders also seem to have the Chiefs-esque factor of having things go their way in big moments and never shooting themselves in the foot, something the Eagles have done continuously this season including last week against the Rams. The Commanders may not win this game. Their defensive issues may prove too much to pull off another upset. With that being said, I can’t envision this being a blowout in favor of Philadelphia. I’ll take the points. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: In a chess match between Vic Fangio and Kliff Kingsbury, I don’t quite know if it’s easy to pick a winner. These two teams are, in some ways, bizarro versions of one another. Washington has an offensive line that played out of its mind last week and the Eagles have one of the better overall units in the NFL. I am leaning slightly toward Philadelphia if only because they still have a more consistent and controllable running game. The Commanders will need game-of-the-year performances from Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, which is possible, but not as easy to bet on as Barkley continuing to play at his current level. —Orr
AFC championship
Buffalo Bills (15–4) at Kansas City Chiefs (17–2)
When/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (over/under: 47.5)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills’ linebackers. Kansas City could have had a short postseason appearance if it didn’t receive a vintage performance from Kelce, who punished the Texans in the middle of the field to assist Mahomes against a vaunted pass rush. Kelce recorded seven catches for 117 yards and one touchdown. A week after containing Henry, Bills linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard now need to solve the complex puzzle that comes with facing the tandem of Mahomes and Kelce. Milano, a solid coverage defender, didn’t play in the first meeting when the Bills defeated the Chiefs 30–21 in November. —Manzano
Key stat: Both third-down defenses have struggled this season, but the Chiefs could be well-positioned to take advantage with their full offensive arsenal finally healthy. Kansas City’s offense was second in third-down rate this year at 48.5%, while Buffalo ranks 29th defensively, allowing 43.8% of conversions. —Verderame
Best bet: Chiefs -1.5. I have zero faith in the Bills’ defense. I bet against them last week due to their bad defensive numbers, but they were saved by the Ravens turning the ball over three times and the Bills were still a dropped two-point conversion away from having the game tied late despite sporting a plus-3 turnover differential. The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in the second half of the season, including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate and 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. The Chiefs will hand the Bills yet another postseason loss. —MacMillan
This article was originally published on www.si.com as AFC, NFC Championship Previews 2024: Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen Take Center stage.
