Perhaps the best thing the Cincinnati Bengals can do to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday’s AFC Championship game is to… well, show up and do what they’ve done before. The Bengals have famously beaten the Chiefs in each of their last three matchups, and in each of those games, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s halftime adjustments (which exist, no matter what Peyton Manning says) have made life pure hell for Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes’ first-half/second-half and overtime splits in those three losses, including last season’s loss in last season’s AFC Championship game, could not be much more stark.
Mahomes in the first halves: 43 completions in 57 attempts (75.4%) for 503 yards (8.8 yards per attempt), 267 air yards (4.7 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, no interceptions, one sack, 19 pressures, and a passer rating of 136.8.
Mahomes in the second halves/OT: 25 completions in 44 attempts (56.8%) for 253 yards (5.8 yards per attempt), 129 air yards (2.9 air yards per attempt), no touchdowns, two interceptions, five sacks, 20 pressures, and a passer rating of 54.5.
Anarumo will no doubt have all kinds of bear traps for Mahomes in Sunday’s game, and that process will be accentuated to a greater or lesser degree by how much mobility Mahomes has with the high ankle sprain he suffered in the divisional round against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Anarumo-Mahomes battle is the most obvious deciding tilt in this game. If the Bengals are to beat the Chiefs for the fourth straight time, and head to their second straight Super Bowl, they’ll also have to follow these particular bullet points.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Football Outsiders, Sports Info Solutions, and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise indicated).
Eliminate Chris Jones at all costs.
There are a handful of players who can lay claim to the title of “Best Defensive Tackle in the NFL,” and Kansas City’s Chris Jones is certainly one of them. No interior defensive lineman has created more offensive havoc than Jones from 0-technique (head up over the center) to 3-tech (aligned to the guard’s outside shoulder) In those alignments, Jones has nine solo sacks, 12 quarterback hits, 26 quarterback hurries, and eight knockdowns.
But in Week 13 against the Bengals, Jones had no sacks, no quarterback hits, and just two quarterback hurries on 61 snaps. Why? Because Cincinnati’s offensive line treated him as a defense would treat Travis Kelce or Ja’Marr Chase — they doubled and tripled him over and over and took their chances with everybody else. Jones was at least double-teamed on 25 snaps, and though he got both of his quarterback hurries against doubles, it was not the game Jones would have preferred.
Now, there are times with Jones where you can align multiple blockers against him, and it just doesn’t matter. Jones almost got to Joe Burrow on this play with 2:05 left in the fourth quarter by cruising past center Ted Karras and left guard Cordell Volson. George Karlaftis got the sack, but Jones was right behind him.
Jones also beat Karras and right guard Alex Cappa with 3:04 left in the game; had had Burrow not escaped for a two-yard gain, this also would have been a Jones sack.
So, pressure numbers aren’t always indicative of a player’s effect on an offense. Jones is a one-man wrecking crew no matter how many blockers you put on him, and the Bengals — especially with their injury-depleted offensive line — will be well aware of that. Eliminating Jones entirely as a factor is wishful thinking. The best the Bengals can do, as was the case earlier in the season, is to limit the damage to a reasonable amount.
Run the Chiefs right out of their own building.
Speaking of that injury-depleted Bengals offensive line, that group put on a master class in run game diversity and blocking technique against the Bills in the divisional round. Cappa, left tackle Jonah Williams, and right tackle La’el Collins were all out, and Karras was dinged up in the game. But Cincinnati ran all over the Bills’ defense for 172 yards, and Joe Burrow was sacked just once, with 12 pressures on his 39 dropbacks.
It was a performance that offensive line coach Frank Pollack took personally for his players.
“That’s the story of the NFL,” Pollack said on Wednesday. “They want drama. We’re in the world of 24-hour news cycle, drama, reality TV. All this garbage that promotes all that. But it gets the ratings, it gets the eyeballs and that’s all good for the league from a business perspective. But for the team, you have to tune out the noise. It’s all garbage, it’s crap. You’ve got to tune it out, stay focused and all that matters is the men in the locker room.
“And our guys took that message this week and did an outstanding job. I’m really proud of them.”
Like most offensive line coaches, Pollack has no filter, which is always delightful. And he had a point regarding his line in that game. Joe Mixon beat that Bills for 105 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, and the ways in which Cincinnati’s like blocked things up for him was, in a word, marvelous.
That’s what I call sealing the edges. pic.twitter.com/dVgWYdqude
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 22, 2023
That screencap was from Mixon’s 10-yard run with 13:15 left in the first quarter. Mixon simply followed the parting of the Red Sea, and walloped safety Jordan Power at the end of the play for good measure.
Mixon missed the Week 13 game against the Chiefs with a concussion, but it didn’t matter in the end. The Bengals had 152 rushing yards in that game, their third-highest total of the season, and backup Samaje Perine went off with 106 yards on 21 carries. Perine didn’t have a ton of explosive runs in that game, but he also didn’t have a single negative play — each of his rushing attempts gained positive yardage.
This 10-yard run with 3:12 left in the fourth quarter was a nice mirror image of the Mixon run, in which the play is blocked up to create an impressive lane, and the deep safety catching strays at the end (Juan Thornhill in this case) was hoping for a more positive result.
The whole “Keep Patrick Mahomes off the field by running the ball” is generally a fool’s errand because of the Chiefs’ explosive potential, but the Bengals are one team who can pin you to the bench with intelligent smashmouth, and then match you big play for big play.
With that, it’s past time to discuss the Bengals’ quarterback, because that Joe Burrow guy is pretty good.
Lean on Joe Burrow's Brady-esque pocket movement.
To count the attributes that make Burrow special is to design the near-perfect quarterback. But one thing that has stood out to me before, and it was gobsmackingly obvious against the Bills, is Burrow’s pocket movement. Not escaping the pocket, but the more nuanced skill of managing a four foot-by four-foot square, and evading pressure to make big-time throws. Tom Brady is the best pocket mover in pro football history — I don’t think there’s a lot of debate there — but the stuff Burrow did against the Bills was similarly freaky.
It started early against the Bills.
Joseph Lee Burrow, master of pocket movement. pic.twitter.com/64XIgW4bAR
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 23, 2023
Burrow’s overall strategy was simple but effective: If pressure came from the edges, he’d move up in the pocket and feather throws to his receivers. If pressure came right up the middle, he’d hang back, move around, gain that extra split millisecond, and beat the defense with another timely pass.
Burrow’s 28-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase with 11:48 left in the first quarter was a case in which Burrow was pressured from the edge AND inside. It’s pretty frustrating for a defense to do everything right, only to watch a quarterback split the void between two pass-rushers ready to get home…
…and then, he does this.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is more than aware of Burrow’s predilection for defensive annoyance in these matters.
“When you watch him, he just is – the word I come up with is nifty,” Spagnuolo said of Burrow on Thursday. “He never panics in the pocket. It feels like he’s got like six eyeballs around his head. Seriously. We watched them last night, [Defensive Line Coach] Joe [Cullen] and I were watching him. There’s a rusher coming in, it looks like he’s going to get him, and Joe didn’t do very much but he made a move, never lost balance, took a couple steps, threw the ball downfield.
“Yeah, he’s elite. You’ve got to be more under control is the only thing I could say. We’ve worked on that. And yet, if you try to rush controlled too much, you’ll never get there, right? But it’s both ways. We’ve got to cover really good on the back end to give our pass rushers time, and then we’ve got to find a way to finish him. Getting more guys there, I mean, you want to get as many guys there as you can. It’s hard for one guy.”
Understanding the problem is Step 1. Stopping it in this case could be much more difficult. Hurrying Burrow is like punching Rocky Balboa — you’re just amping him up. You either knock Burrow out (figuratively speaking, of course), or he’s just going to keep coming at you.
Double Travis Kelce, but watch out for his buddies.
In the companion piece detailing what the Chiefs need to do to beat the Bengals, I made the rather self-evident point that if you cover Ja’Marr Chase with just one defender, your defense is going to pay for it. Well, no duh, Doug. The Chiefs also have a force multiplier who defenses must consider doubling at all times, and that target is Travis Kelce.
Back in Week 13, the Bengals had a clear understanding of the threat Kelce can be, and they did things that were similar to what the Chiefs did to Chase. Whether it was going all out after him on a simple screen…
…or conceding the catch in zone coverage, but bracketing Kelce high and low to avoid the explosive play.
Kelce finished that game with four catches on six targets for 56 yards and no touchdowns, which is as positive a result as any defense can expect.
Of course — and this is also true of Ja’Marr Chase — the problem with paying too much attention to Kelce is that you’re leaving one-on-ones for everybody else. The Chiefs took advantage of this on their game-deciding touchdown against the Jaguars in the divisional round. With 7:13 left in the fourth quarter, and the score 20-17 Chiefs, safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco doubled Kelce over the middle from the Jacksonville six-yard line. That allowed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to beat cornerback Tyson Campbell on the crosser to the end zone.
The Chiefs have other estimable targets, just as the Bengals have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd if you decide to throw too many resources at the No. 1 guy. It’s a balance, but each team has one receiver you single up at your peril, and here’s where Cincinnati’s defense will have its eyes.
