Although daily new cases of COVID-19 are not significantly high as yet, the number of active cases in Karnataka have shot up by 23.6% in the last one month. From 1,500 on April 4, active cases have increased to 1,854 on May 5.
The number of active COVID-19 cases in the third wave in Karnataka fell below the 50,000 mark on February 11 and further below the 20,000 mark on February 17 after hitting a peak of 3,62,487 cases on January 24. From March 20, active cases fell below 2,000 and have since then been hovering around 1,800. On April 4, the cases further plummeted to 1,500.
The last time active caseload was around 50,000 was on January 9, 2022, when 49,602 were under treatment. Subsequently, when active cases crossed 73,260 on January 11, Union Joint Secretary Rajesh Bhushan wrote to States and Union Territories advising them to keep a daily watch on active cases, home isolation and hospital cases, especially those needing oxygen.
Rise and fall
Active cases, which have been consistently declining since September 2021, started rising from the end of December when the third wave began in the State. By January 1, 2022, however, active cases stood at 9,386, crossing the 9,000 mark for the first time since mid-October 2021 before reaching 10,292 on January 2. In five days, the number doubled, touching 22,173 on January 6. Since then, the number of active cases saw a rapid rise till January 24, when 3,62,487 patients were under treatment. The cases, since then, have seen a steady decline.
Recording discharges
State Health Commissioner Randeep D. said the rise in active cases is in proportion to the average rise in daily new cases. “Discharges need to be shown daily after checking the COVID infected person’s status telephonically after 10 days from the date of them testing positive. In some cases, there may not be timely checking and recording the recovery of such patients. We will direct the districts to do this without any delay,” he said.
Pointing out that home isolation discharges are being checked after seven days itself, the Commissioner said: “As almost all cases are home isolation now, we have to proactively call the patient after 7-10 days and if s/he has been symptomless for the previous three days, we consider it as discharge. This seems to have not kept pace with new cases. Hence the slight increase in active cases.”
Not alarming
C.N. Manjunath, nodal officer for labs and testing in the State’s COVID-19 task force and member of the State’s Clinical Experts Committee, said the situation is not alarming as of now. “The rise in active cases is a cumulative effect of new cases getting added everyday. However, the overall test positivity rate is around 1.5% as of now and a majority of the infected are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. It is important that those with comorbidities seek medical advice as soon as they develop symptoms. They should undergo risk assessment and evaluation.”
Pointing out that the slight rise in cases as of now does not indicate the pattern of a wave, Dr. Manjunath said: “A clear picture will emerge only by the end of this month or the first week of June. What we are seeing now is a localised spike in cases. However, it is too early to rule out the fourth wave.”
