A year after Duke and North Carolina met as unranked foes for the first time in six decades, their fierce rivalry once again has championship implications with both at the top of the ACC standings.
At the same time, Saturday’s Duke-UNC clash at the Smith Center will also have an impact on the ACC Player of the Year race.
Duke freshman Paolo Banchero was named the preseason Player of the Year last fall before he’d even played a college game. The 6-10 forward has backed that up, averaging 17.8 points and 8.3 rebounds for the No. 9 Blue Devils (18-3, 8-2 ACC).
“He’s ACC Player of the Year,” Davis said last month. “He goes to the backboard every single time. The opponent has to box him out every single time. As I said before, it’s not even close: He is the ACC Player of the Year. Plain and simple, period, the end.”
A 6-10 junior, Bacot does have impressive numbers of his own, averaging 16.5 points and 12.6 rebounds per game to pace the Tar Heels (16-6, 8-3 ACC).
Using KenPom.com’s ratings, based on offensive and defensive efficiency, Banchero, Wake Forest’s Alondes Williams and Bacot are the ACC’s top three players in that order.
Williams is certainly in the Player of the Year conversation, since he leads the ACC in points (19.8) and assists (5.1) per game. Miami’s Kameron McGusty, scoring 18 points a game, is also in the conversation with the Hurricanes (16-6, 8-3 ACC) in the mix for first place with Duke and UNC.
But let’s focus on the top two players for the Blue Devils and Tar Heels for now as the teams prepare for the first of their two regular-season meetings.
The case for Banchero
Unlike Bacot, Banchero is not only comfortable playing anywhere on the court, but also he’s able to dominate there. At 6-10 and 250 pounds, Banchero can bring the ball up the court and get Duke into its offense, post up down low to score or hit jumpers from mid-range or behind the 3-point line.
That’s a lot for Duke’s foes to deal with and a reason why a consensus of NBA scouts has him going in the top-five picks in this summer’s NBA Draft.
He’s brought back the lost art of the mid-range jumper, having made 59% of his jumpers taken between 17 feet and the 3-point line, according to Synergy Sports. At 31.8%, his 3-point shooting isn’t a strength. But it’s good enough to keep defenders honest.
In addition to his scoring, Banchero is adept at creating offense for others. He averages 2.6 assists per game.
That ability nearly earned him a triple-double when he scored 20 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and collected seven assists when Florida State beat the Blue Devils, 79-78, in overtime on Jan. 18.
As big as he is, he has proven to be smooth. Banchero has only been called for 1.7 fouls per game, with only four games where he has been called for three or more fouls. That’s only happened once in ACC play.
So Banchero plays plenty (31.8 minutes per game), avoids fouls, leads his team in scoring by hitting 49.6% of his shots from all over the floor while he’s also a competent rebounder and passer.
The case for Bacot
More of a true post player than Banchero, Bacot is a force in the paint for the Tar Heels. He leads the ACC in rebounding (12.6 per game) and is No. 7 in the scoring race, just behind No. 6 Banchero.
Bacot is a double-double machine, having recorded 10 points and 10 rebounds or more in all but one of UNC’s 11 ACC games. That includes his 19 points and 22 rebounds in Tuesday night’s 90-83 overtime win at Louisville.
Like Banchero, he made a serious run at a triple-double in an ACC game as well. Bacot produced 18 points, 13 rebounds and six blocked shots when UNC beat N.C. State 100-80 last Saturday.
Yes, Bacot also averages 1.7 blocked shots per game, which is No. 6 in the ACC.
Good luck stopping Bacot when he gets the ball inside. He’s made 57.2% of his shots this season.
According to Synergy, he’s attempted 91 shots in post-up situations this season. He’s made 49 of them (53.8%) to score 1.1 points per possession in post-ups. He’s only turned the ball over on 9.3% of them, a sign of his strength.
By comparison, Duke 7-1 sophomore center Mark Williams has produced just 0.85 points per possession in post-ups, making 45% of his shots, while turning the ball over 18.5% of the time.
Simply put, Bacot is a dominant player at both ends of the court. He’s already turned in two of the ACC’s top games this season. In addition to his output against N.C. State, he had 29 points and 22 rebounds when UNC beat Virginia 74-58 on Jan. 8.
What will make the difference?
Both Duke and UNC are essentially at the halfway point of ACC play. The Blue Devils have 10 games remaining, while UNC has nine.
So Banchero and Bacot have plenty of time to add to their already strong cases. Big performances by either in the two Duke-UNC games would help their cases.
But what both need are what’s discussed so often in college football, where a “Heisman moment” sets a candidate apart from the competition. A last-second shot or completing a triple-double could help Banchero or Bacot separate from the pack that also includes Williams and McGusty.
One thing neither can afford is a dud game. Bacot came close when he made just 1 of 10 shots to score six points in UNC’s 58-47 win over Boston College on Jan. 26. But at least he grabbed 18 rebounds and blocked three shots that night.
The closest Banchero came to that was last Saturday against Louisville when he was 5 of 13 from the field, scoring 11 points. His 15 rebounds and three assists made that a winning effort, though, as Duke won 74-65.
Duke, with 18, and UNC (15) have combined to produce 33 ACC Players of the Year in the league’s 68 basketball seasons thus far. Five of the last 10 awards have gone to either a Blue Devil or a Tar Heel.
Bacot and Banchero are playing well enough to add to that tradition this season.
